\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 155 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) )
Event: the company issued its 2021 annual report on April 8, 2022, achieving a revenue of 1.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +119%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70.06 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%.
Key investment points
In 2021, the revenue increased rapidly, and the high-speed production expansion cost was advanced, which put pressure on the short-term net profit: Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) in 2021, the revenue reached 1.102 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 119%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 70.06 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 51.69 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8%. In Q4 single quarter, the revenue was 366 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 83% and a month on month increase of + 84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 360000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 99% and a month on month increase of + 115%. Among them, the new energy business is the largest source of revenue and revenue growth point of the company in 2021: the revenue of the company’s new energy automation equipment in 2021 was 1.031 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 178.8%, accounting for 94% of the company’s operating revenue in 2021. Benefiting from the rapid expansion of the new energy battery factory and the gradual confirmation of the company’s orders in hand, the company’s revenue increased rapidly. The pressure on net profit in 2021 is mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin caused by profit making customers and the advance of high-speed production expansion expenses. In 2022, the company’s production capacity is still in rapid expansion. At present, the total area of the factory reaches 72000 square meters and the total existing production capacity reaches 2 billion. We expect the total area of the company to reach 140000 square meters and the production capacity to reach 4 billion yuan by the end of 2022. We believe that in the future, with the gradual release of the production capacity of the new plant, under the scale effect, the company will return to a reasonable profit level to meet the performance release period.
Excellent fee control ability, waiting for profitability repair under the scale effect: the Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 27.6%, year-on-year -4.3pct; The net profit margin on sales was 6.4%, a year-on-year increase of -5.7pct. Q4 single quarter comprehensive gross profit margin was 21.9%, year-on-year -8.8pct, month on month -7.0pct; The net profit margin of sales was -0.26%, with a year-on-year ratio of -15.3pct and a month on month ratio of -0.01pct. The decline of comprehensive gross profit margin is due to the company’s high share of important customers in 2021. In the future, with the improvement of the bargaining power of the company’s highly automated production line, the level of gross profit margin is expected to usher in an inflection point in 2022. The growth of scale drives the decrease of the company’s expense rate during 2021. In 2021, the company’s expense rate during the period was 17.6%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.8pct, of which the sales expense rate was 1.6%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.3pct; The management expense ratio (including R & D) was 15.9%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.3pct; The financial expense rate was 0.04%, year-on-year + 0.7pct. In 2021, the company continued to increase R & D investment. In 2021, the R & D investment reached 99 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 84.1%, and the R & D expense rate was 8.94%, a year-on-year increase of -1.7pct. Under the future scale effect, we judge that the period expense rate of the company will further decline in 2022, and the net interest rate is expected to increase to about 10%.
Contract liabilities & inventories increased significantly, with full orders on hand and high catalytic performance: by the end of 2021, contract liabilities were 191 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 161%; The company’s inventory was 333 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 171%, which reflected that the company had full orders on hand, mainly because 2021 was the first year of high-speed production expansion of downstream battery plants. Relying on the advantages of automation, the company’s newly signed and on-hand orders increased significantly. In 2021, the newly signed orders of the company reached 2.1 billion yuan (excluding tax, including 1.8 billion yuan for battery plant, 200 million yuan for vehicle plant and less than 100 million yuan for others), about four times the revenue of 2020 (504 million yuan). On April 6, 2022, the company again announced a large order of 30075 million yuan (excluding tax).
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s production capacity is in rapid expansion. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 197 / 315 / 470 million. The current stock price corresponds to 33 / 21 / 14 times of dynamic PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The improvement of automation rate of module + pack line is lower than expected.
