\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 225 Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) )
Shaanxi is a leader in power coal, with significant scale advantages. The company has 19 pairs of subordinate mines with a total capacity of 140.05 million tons / year, including 16 pairs of holding mines with a total capacity of 119.05 million tons / year (equity capacity of 75.52 million tons / year) and 21 million tons / year of participating mines (equity capacity of 7.04 million tons / year). Among the holding mines, there are 5 pairs of mines with a capacity of more than 10 million tons, with a total capacity of 76 million tons / year, accounting for 64% of the total holding capacity. The advantages of mine scale are prominent. 2021q4 in the context of supply guarantee in the coal industry, the company has also undertaken certain supply guarantee tasks. Some production capacity has been approved to increase. The company’s holding mine production capacity has been approved to increase by 5 million tons / year (equity production capacity has increased by 2.59 million tons / year), and the participating mine production capacity has been approved to increase by 3 million tons / year (equity production capacity has increased by 940000 tons / year). After the increase, the company’s equity production capacity totaled 82.65 million tons / year.
The rise of comprehensive selling price drives the release of the company’s performance. As the company’s railway transport capacity is difficult to match the company’s coal sales, and the company’s coal calorific value is high, which is more suitable for chemical customers, the part of the company other than railway transport of coal is mainly local non power users, and the proportion of long-term cooperation is relatively low. Since 2022, the trend of pithead coal price has been stronger than that of port. The westward movement of high energy consuming industries and the marginal improvement of chemical and building materials demand have driven the continuous rise of pithead price. In the context of high overseas coal prices, it is difficult for imports to become an effective supplement to the Chinese market, and the price is expected to continue to rise. In terms of long-term association, the benchmark price of Qinhuangdao long-term association will be increased from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton in 2022, an increase of 25%. The long-term association of the company is expected to benefit from the improvement of the center of the long-term association. On the whole, under the background of better cost control of the company, the profit space is expected to increase.
High dividend cash cow, with long-term investment value. As of the third quarter of 2021, the company’s asset liability ratio was only 37.99%, the financial expenses were 88 million yuan, and the book monetary funds could fully cover the interest bearing liabilities. Xiaobaodang coal mine has been put into operation, and the construction progress of Shenwei pipeline transmission project has reached 96.54% (disclosed in the 2021 interim report). The subsequent capital investment may continue to decline, and the characteristics of cash cow are obvious. According to the shareholder return plan of the company, the profit distributed in cash every year shall not be less than 40% of the distributable profit realized in the current year and the amount shall not be less than 4 billion yuan. The actual cash dividend payment rate of the company in 2020 is 52.11%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 20.936 billion yuan. Assuming that the dividend is distributed at the minimum 40% proportion promised by the company, the dividend is expected to be about 8.374 billion yuan, The dividend yield is 5.09% (closing price on April 8, 2022, the same later; the valuation model is calculated by 50% dividend ratio); Assuming a cash dividend rate of 52.11% in 2020, the dividend is expected to be about 10.901 billion yuan, with a dividend rate of about 6.63%. The dividend yield is high and the investment value is high.
The closing price of PE and EPS is expected to be RMB 209.5 billion and RMB 299.5 billion respectively, which is lower than the estimated closing price of PE and EPS in 2021 / 2023, respectively. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic fluctuation risk; 2) Risk of policy change; 3) Risk of rising costs.
