\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) released the main financial data of 2021 and the main operating conditions of Q1 in 2022. According to the accounting, the total revenue in 2021 was 19.971 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.75%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.314 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 72.56%, close to the median value of the previous performance forecast. Among them, the estimated revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 single quarter was 2.714 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 25% / 30%. The company preliminarily calculated that the total revenue of 2022q1 was about 10.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 43%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 70%.
In 2021, structural upgrading + cost control released profit elasticity, and the rhythm of 21q4 slowed down. 1) By product, the revenue growth of blue and white series in 21 years is obvious, the growth of green 20 is fast, the performance of Renaissance version is relatively stable, and the growth of Q4 slows down, mainly due to the strong control of goods by the company. Due to the company's volume control and investment contraction in the second half of the year, it is estimated that the income growth of Bofen will slow down significantly. Due to the end of the impact of the epidemic in the same period of last year and the high base, it is estimated that the income growth rate of laobaifen Q4 has decreased, and the income growth in Panama is relatively stable. 2) By region, it is estimated that the income inside / outside the province will achieve high growth in 21 years, and the proportion of the market outside the province is higher than that in the province. The average growth rate of the market income in the south of the Yangtze River will reach 60%. In the old base Market, the growth rate of Henan is relatively stable, the growth rate of Shandong is obvious, and Beijing, Tianjin and Inner Mongolia also maintain steady growth. 3) The net profit margin attributable to the parent company in 21 years was 26.61%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6pct. Under the guidance of blue and white, the product structure was upgraded significantly, the investment efficiency of superimposed fees was improved, and the profit elasticity was obvious. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 16.02%, with a year-on-year decrease of about 1PCT, which is estimated to be related to the increase of expenses in preparation for the 22-year Spring Festival peak season.
Under the high base, the growth momentum of 2022q1 is still strong, and the brand potential is prominent. 1) In 2022q1, with a high base, the company made a good start. It is estimated that from January to February, the company contributed the main increment, with an increase higher than the average growth rate of Q1. In the off-season of March, the company took the initiative to stabilize the sales rhythm and the revenue growth was relatively stable. In terms of products, it is estimated that the revenue of Qinghua series accounts for 40% +, it is estimated that qing20 has more than doubled year-on-year growth, the volume of Fuxing version has also increased, the performance of Bofen is stable, it is estimated that the revenue has increased slightly year-on-year, laobaifen has also achieved high growth, and Xinghua village and Zhuyeqing have also increased significantly due to their small volume. 2) It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 is about 35.24%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.48pct. It is estimated that the increase in the proportion of medium and high-end products is mainly due to the increase in the gross profit margin. 3) The company's payment collection and delivery maintain a normal rhythm. Recently, although the epidemic situation in some markets has been repeated, the dynamic sales of Fen Liquor has been stable and the inventory has been at a low level. It is estimated that the current impact is limited. Q2 is the traditional off-season, and it is estimated that the company's grasp of the sales rhythm will be further strengthened. Throughout the year, Qinghua is still the main line of development, qing20 is an important support for large-scale development, and the revival version is an important starting point for promoting high-end development. Q1 has a good large-scale performance. Bofen has stabilized the quantity and controlled the goods and maintained the situation of short supply, Panama and laobaifen have maintained steady growth, and Xinghua village and Zhuyeqing need to be expanded later. At the same time, emerging markets outside the province continue to expand and further increase channel sinking and coverage with the support of the sales team.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: maintain the net profit forecast of 202123 to be RMB 5.511/75.03/9.650 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 4.52/6.15/7.91, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 51 / 37 / 29 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is severe, the growth of blue and white series is less than expected, and the market expansion outside the province is less than expected.
