\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 898 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) )
Event: on April 11, 2022, the announcement announced the pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the net profit in the first quarter will be 6.45-7.13 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83.8% – 103.2%.
22q1 achieved the highest profit in a single quarter, greatly exceeding our expectations. According to the announcement, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 is 6.45 billion ~ 7.13 billion yuan. Even from the following limits, it is the highest single quarter profit since the company was listed, which is much higher than our expectation.
The volume and price of coal business rose simultaneously. From the operating data of the company from January to February, the output of self-produced commercial coal increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 2007 million tons, and the sales volume of commercial coal decreased by 10.4% year-on-year to 45.16 million tons, of which the sales volume of self-produced commercial coal increased by 13.5% year-on-year to 20.95 million tons, and the decline in sales volume mainly came from purchased coal. It is expected that the output of commercial coal produced by the company in March is expected to continue to grow. In terms of price, the long-term association price from January to march was 725 yuan, 725 yuan and 720 yuan respectively, an increase of 24.8%, 18.1% and 25% respectively compared with 581 yuan, 614 yuan and 576 yuan in the same period last year. In terms of market coal, according to wind data, the average closing price of q5500 in Qinhuangdao port in the first quarter increased by 63.14% year-on-year.
From January to February, the output of chemicals decreased slightly and the price rose. According to the announcement, from January to February, the company’s Polyolefin output was 244000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%, and the sales of polyolefin was 209000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%. Urea output was Shanghai Hajime Advanced Material Technology Co.Ltd(301000) tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and the sales volume was 240000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. Methanol output was 350000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 130.3%, and sales volume was 343000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 124.2%. In terms of price, according to wind data, the average prices of methanol, urea and polyethylene in 22q1 increased by 17.9%, 24.6% and 12.6% respectively year-on-year, and the price of the company’s Chemicals increased. In addition, in 2022, chemical prices are expected to benefit from higher oil prices.
The company has entered a period of output growth. The company is a company with growing capacity among coal enterprises. In terms of production capacity, four coal mines have been included in the list of national coal mines with increased production and guaranteed supply, increasing the production capacity by 12.1 million tons / year, of which the east open pit coal mine and Wangjialing coal mine have increased the production capacity by 6.5 million tons / year, which has been approved. In terms of capacity under construction, the first mining face of dahaize coal mine with an annual output of 15 million tons of high-quality power coal has been put into trial operation. In addition to dahaize, the company still has three pairs of capacity under construction, namely Libi coal mine (4 million tons / year), Yilan No. 3 coal mine (2.4 million tons / year) and Weizigou coal mine (2.4 million tons / year). The company has strong growth.
Investment suggestion: under the background of the benchmark increase of the long-term association, the company’s comprehensive price center moves upward with strong certainty. At the same time, the production capacity under construction is continuously put into operation, the self-produced coal output is expected to continue to grow, and the company is expected to increase both volume and price in the future, with broad development prospects. According to the latest performance report of the company and the current coal price, we raised the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 23858 / 25767 / 265.1 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.80/1.94/2.00 respectively, and the corresponding PE on April 11, 2022 will be four times. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply; The price of coal chemical products fell sharply; The capacity under construction is less than expected; Withdrawing large amount impairment; Costs rose more than expected.
