\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
After 21 years, 22q1 has made a good start. The company released the main financial data of 21 years and the operation of 22q1. The revenue of 21 years was 19.97 billion yuan (YoY + 42.8%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.31 billion yuan (YoY + 72.6%); The revenue of 22q1 was about 10.5 billion yuan (YoY + 43%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 3.7 billion yuan (YoY + 70%), which made a good start.
Qinghua Fen Liquor has a high growth rate and the product structure continues to upgrade. In the 21st year, the company achieved high growth in revenue and split categories: 1) qinghuafen is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 60%, accounting for more than 35% of Fen Liquor categories. Among them, qing30 revival version leads the upgrading of product structure, and qing20 is expected to double its growth due to its high cost performance; 2) Laobaifen and Panama, as waist products, have been steadily expanded; 3) There was strong demand in the downstream of Bofen. The company raised the ex factory price and achieved a high growth rate throughout the year, accounting for about 30% of Fen Liquor category. The upgrading of the company's product structure is obvious, which promotes the improvement of profitability. 22q1, it is expected that the main categories of the company will continue the high growth trend. After the company has strengthened the promotion of qing30 revival version, the growth rate of qinghuafen is expected to be more than 60% to achieve high growth; The company promotes the nationalization of laobaifen and Panama, and the growth rate is expected to be high; Bofen takes the initiative to control the volume and support the price, and is expected to achieve steady growth.
The cost of structural upgrading was diluted, and the profitability continued to improve. In the past 21 years, the operating profit margin of the company was 35.20% (YoY + 4.93pct), and the net profit rate attributable to the parent company was 26.61% (YoY + 4.60pct), which significantly improved the profitability; It is expected to benefit mainly from the increase in gross profit margin brought about by the upgrading of product structure and the dilution of sales expenses and management expenses caused by the expansion of revenue scale. 22q1 company's net profit attributable to the parent company is about 35.24% (YoY + 5.48pct), and its profitability maintains an upward trend.
The channel potential energy is expected to support the performance growth and be optimistic about the dividend of Fenjiu revival. On the margin, the current rated prices of qing30 revival version and qing20 are about 830 yuan and 375 yuan respectively, which remain stable month on month. In recent years, the company's performance has continued to grow rapidly, giving the channel a high gross profit level and strong channel potential, which is expected to support the medium and short-term performance growth. In terms of subregions, the company strengthens the process of nationalization and focuses on economically developed regions such as the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, which is expected to contribute important increments. In terms of product structure, after the green 30 revival version and green 40 China dragon were listed, the brand positioning of Fen Liquor further rose, driving the growth of products. After the new chairman general Yuan takes office, he is expected to promote the reform process and management improvement of the company, and is optimistic about the revival dividend and long-term profit growth space of Fenjiu.
Reduce the revenue and gross profit margin, and predict the earnings per share of 21-23 years to be 4.36 yuan, 6.32 yuan and 8.14 yuan respectively (the original forecast of 21-23 years is 4.73/6.34/8.18 yuan). Maintain the previous valuation method, the comparable company's 22-year pe30 times, give a 25% valuation premium, corresponding to 38 times of 22-year pe38 times, corresponding to the target price of 240.16 yuan, and maintain the buy rating.
Risk warning: the reform is lower than expected, the consumption demand is lower than expected, and the risk of food safety events.
