\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 311 Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) )
The annual report of 2021 and the annual report of 2022 are released.
The pig breeding business dragged down the performance. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 85.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 42.56%, of which feed, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) sales, raw material Trade and probiotics contributed 48.765 billion yuan, 6.368 billion yuan, 4.405 billion yuan and 665 million yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 25.09%, + 132.31%, – 15.28% and + 15.78%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 36.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 1.519 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 38.22%. The expense rate during the period was 5.92%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.07pct; The comprehensive gross profit margin was 8.49%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.17pct. The decline of the company’s performance was mainly due to the continuous decline of pig prices, resulting in the net profit of pig breeding business attributable to shareholders of listed companies of -896 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -238.09%; Excluding this business, the company achieved a revenue of 81.357 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32.97%. 21q4’s revenue was 21.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was – 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 133.48%; The expense rate during the period was 7.12%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.16pct; The comprehensive gross profit margin was 6.65%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.94pct. Dividend plan: cash dividend of 1.5 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
22q1 revenue was 19.953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26.98%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 201 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 71.6%; The expense rate during the period was 6.84%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.76pct; The comprehensive gross profit margin was 8.02%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.63pct. The performance of the company was affected by factors such as the rising price of feed raw materials and the increase of cost rate.
The market share of feed continued to increase, with a new production capacity of about 8.7 million tons. In 21 years, the company’s feed sales volume was 19.63 million tons, of which the external sales volume was 18.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 28%; The gross profit margin of feed was 9.08%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.24pct. Among them, the sales of poultry, pig and aquatic materials were 9.44 million tons, 4.6 million tons and 4.67 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11%, + 100% and + 21%. The company provides customized products and breeding schemes in terms of poultry materials to achieve contrarian growth. The pig feed sales area has further expanded from South China and central China to North China, southwest, northwest and other regions, and the customer recognition has continued to increase. In terms of aquatic materials, in the past 21 years, the price of ordinary fish was high and the demand for feed was strong. The company’s ordinary fish materials increased by + 21% year-on-year; Affected by the decline of catering consumption and seedling degradation, the sales volume of special aquatic fish feed of the company is basically the same; In addition, benefiting from the advantages of aquatic animal protection and service mode, the sales volume of shrimp and crab materials of the company increased by + 35% year-on-year.
Feed business is the core business of the company in the medium and long term, with a sales target of 40 million tons in 2025. In the past 21 years, the company invested in the construction of a new production capacity of nearly 5 million tons. At the same time, through leasing, mergers and acquisitions, the company absorbed and added more than 30 feed plants, increasing the production capacity by about 3.7 million tons, laying the foundation for the 25-year goal.
In the past 21 years, the company has sold about 2 million pigs, realizing an operating revenue of 4.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.08%. In addition to the pigs sold in the market in 21 years, the cost is relatively high. With the superposition of the continuous downward trend of pig prices in 21 years, the company’s pig breeding business lost about 896 million yuan. At the breeding level, the company’s biological prevention and control ability has been continuously improved, the breeding team has excellent technology, and the breeding survival rate in the fattening stage exceeds 90%; With the advantages of feed end R & D and scale, the company’s pig breeding cost has decreased significantly. Considering that the 22-year pig cycle may usher in a reversal trend, the company’s pig breeding business may have a better performance.
The investment suggestion company is a leading enterprise in the feed industry, integrating products, R & D and services, and the feed production capacity has increased significantly. The company is actively moving towards the target of 40 million tons; The superimposed pig cycle may usher in a reversal market, and the overall performance of the company can be expected. We predict that the EPS from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.46 yuan and 2.66 yuan respectively, corresponding to 37 and 20 times of PE.
Risk tips
1. Risks of animal diseases and natural disasters;
2. Risk of raw material supply and price fluctuation;
3. Risk of pig price fluctuation;
4. Risk of policy change;
5. Risk of product quality, etc.
