\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022 after hours on April 11, realizing a revenue of 64.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%, and the non net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144%.
Comments:
The volume and price of copper, gold and zinc increased simultaneously, and the cost of copper and gold decreased slightly. 2022q1 comprehensive gross profit margin 17.3%, year-on-year + 2.36 percentage points. The growth of performance comes from 1) volume: the output of mineral gold is 13.1 tons (year-on-year + 17%), the output of mineral copper is 194000 tons (year-on-year + 53%), and the output of mineral zinc is 108000 tons (year-on-year + 12%). 2) Price: the unit price of mineral copper is 55000 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 11%), mineral zinc is 17000 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 38%), and mineral gold is 349 yuan / g (year-on-year + 0.1%). 3) Cost: the unit cost of mineral copper is 18000 yuan / ton (year-on-year – 0.5%); The unit cost of mineral gold is 176 yuan / g (- 3.5%); The unit cost of mineral zinc is 7063 yuan / ton (year-on-year + 13%).
Roe in a single quarter hit a new high since 2008 Q1, and operating cash flow hit a new high in the same period. In 2022q1, ROE (diluted) reached 8.19% in a single quarter, a new high since 2008q1; The operating cash flow in a single quarter was 7.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.52%, a new high in the same period in the first quarter.
The production progress of the copper mine exceeded expectations. Copper production in 2022q1 was + 53% year-on-year, exceeding the annual plan (year-on-year + 47%), mainly because the progress of copper mine project exceeded expectations. On March 21, the second phase of kamoa kakula copper mine with an annual processing capacity of 3.8 million tons of ore concentrator was started for commissioning, which was completed and put into operation about 4 months ahead of the original plan; The 40000 t / D technical transformation of saizi copper VK mine is expected to be put into operation in 2022q2, and about 35000 tons of mineral copper will be added after reaching the production capacity; A large number of major projects such as the core project of caving mining in the lower ore belt of sazijin peji copper gold mine, the caving project of sazijin JM copper mine and the phase I project of Aurora mining are progressing smoothly.
The gold mine project is progressing smoothly and promoting the resumption of production of bogla gold mine. 2022q1 mineral gold output + 17% year-on-year, lower than the annual plan (year-on-year + 26%). BNL, a joint venture between the company and Barrick, has signed a start-up agreement on Bogra gold mine with the PNG government. After the signing and entry into force, Nga mineral resources company will resume production smoothly. Shanxi Zijin intelligent mining, dressing, reconstruction and expansion project is expected to be completed in 2022q2, with an additional 3-4 tons of mineral gold after reaching the production capacity; Norton gold field binduli north project with an annual processing capacity of 5 million tons of low-grade ore is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022q3, and about 2.5 tons of mineral gold will be added after reaching the production capacity; The construction of Norton gold field refractory gold mine project has started, and strive to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the continuous rise in metal prices and the production of copper mines exceeding expectations, the company’s performance forecast is raised. Assuming that the average price of Shanghai gold is 390 / 385 / 380 yuan / g, the average price of Shanghai copper is 72 / 6.9/6500 yuan / ton and the average price of Shanghai zinc is 2.5/2.422000 yuan / ton in 20222024, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 25.5/285323 billion yuan (up 12% / 12% / 4%) respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 63% / 12% / 13%, PE corresponding to the current share price is 12 / 11 / 10 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the downward trend of metal prices exceeded expectations, and the construction of copper gold and other projects was less than expected; Overseas operation risk.
