Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156)
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 22.2 billion yuan (year-on-year + 47%), corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.6 billion yuan (year-on-year + 53%), deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 3.5 billion yuan (year-on-year + 55%). Quarter by quarter, Q1 ~ Q4 achieved revenue of 4.5 billion yuan, 5.0 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was 680 million yuan, 840 million yuan, 900 million yuan and 1.2 billion yuan respectively. In the 21st year, the global air cargo market continued to be in a high boom state, in which the market freight rate in the third and fourth quarters resonated with the demand in the peak season, and the company’s performance slightly exceeded our previous expectations.
Revenue and gross profit are divided into sectors. The revenue of air express business is 12.4 billion yuan (year-on-year + 59%), and the gross profit margin is 33% (year-on-year + 2.33pp); The revenue of ground integrated service business was 2.9 billion yuan (year-on-year + 22%), and the gross profit margin was 37% (year-on-year + 1.89pp); The revenue of integrated logistics solutions business was 6.9 billion yuan (year-on-year + 40%), and the gross profit margin was 45% (year-on-year -2.70pp). In terms of operation data, ① express transportation sector: in 2021, the company’s freight and mail transportation turnover was 6.6 billion ton kilometers (year-on-year + 37%), freight and mail transportation volume was 1.45 million tons (year-on-year + 24%), and the average utilization rate of all cargo aircraft was 12.83 hours (year-on-year – 0.8%); The full cargo on-board transportation rate was 85.56% (year-on-year + 2.85pp), and the passenger plane freight transportation rate was 37.24% (year-on-year + 5.57pp). ② Ground service sector: cargo and mail processing capacity of 2.92 million tons (year-on-year + 17%), 89 international inbound and outbound card classes (year-on-year + 53%). ③ Comprehensive logistics solutions: 9610 orders, 16.22 million (year-on-year + 45%), 39813 tons of cross-border e-commerce goods (year-on-year + 81%), and 332 direct charter flights from the origin (year-on-year + 82%)
During the period, the expenses increased due to the adjustment of accounting standards. In 2021, the company’s sales / management / financial expenses were 2.6 (+ 7%) / 3.9 (+ 14%) / 0.5 respectively.
It is expected to cultivate the leading enterprises in the aviation freight industry to integrate with the global supply chain in the future. Cultivating an integrated air freight service provider with global competitiveness is in line with the national strategy. Under the high prospect of the industry, the company’s initiative to extend the freight service chain is in line with the business logic. Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) with excellent resource endowment and the release of dividends from the mixed reform system occupies a seat in the era of large supply chain.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: at present, the high prosperity of air cargo continues. The company actively builds a comprehensive logistics solution system and broadens its business boundaries. We are optimistic about the growth of the company’s new business and pay more attention to the ballast position of traditional business. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.6 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan and 4.6 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 9, 8 and 8 times respectively, maintaining the “hold” rating.
Risk tips: oil price fluctuation risk, macroeconomic risk and safe operation risk.
