\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) 2021 annual report: on April 11, the company released the 2021 annual report. In 2021, the revenue was 5.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%. A cash dividend of 8.5 yuan will be distributed for every 10 shares.
The steady growth of melon seeds and the rapid and large amount of nuts promoted the rapid growth of annual performance. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 5.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.2%, of which Q1-Q4 were + 20.2% / - 12.7% / + 10.7% / + 28.3% year-on-year respectively. After the organizational change in Q2, the enthusiasm of all employees was fully mobilized. In terms of products, melon seeds / nuts / other categories achieved revenue of 3.94/13.7/680 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.9% / + 43.8% / + 9.9% respectively. Melon seeds, as the company's basic sector, maintained steady growth for a long time and promoted the good development of the company's overall performance. Nuts, as the mature second curve, continued to contribute to the performance increment in a rapid and large amount. At the same time, the sales growth rate of nut gift boxes increased significantly during the Spring Festival, bringing another growth point of nuts. In terms of sub channels, the distribution / direct marketing has achieved 84.6% / 15.4% revenue respectively, of which the direct Ka / e-commerce has achieved 5.9% / 9.5% revenue respectively. In the offline market, the South / North / East / overseas regions have achieved 32.3% / 20.3% / 26.9% / 8.7% revenue respectively. Qiaqia has established profound channel advantages in the offline market. By the end of 2021, the company has more than 980 Chinese dealers and more than 50 foreign dealers.
The cost increase is controllable, and the price increase bonus is gradually released. In 2021, Qiaqia's overall gross profit margin was 32.2%, year-on-year + 0.3pct, of which the gross profit margin of melon seeds / nuts was 34.1% / 29.3%, year-on-year + 0.8/1.0pct respectively. Qiaqia raised the price of melon seeds by 8% - 18% on October 22, 2021. At present, it has been successfully transmitted to the terminal. Before the Spring Festival, the company has purchased 60% of the annual consumption of melon seeds, and the purchase cost is + 5% - 10%. The price increase can cover the increase of cost. The overall purchase cost of nuts is basically stable, and the sea freight has increased slightly. It is expected that the overall cost will remain stable in 2022, and the release of price increase bonus will drive the overall gross profit margin. During 2021, the expense rate was 14.8%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.2pct, of which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance were 10.1% / 4.4% / 0.8% / - 0.5% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.3 / - 0.2 / + 0.1 / - 0.03pct respectively, which remained relatively stable as a whole. The annual net interest rate was 15.5%, year-on-year + 0.3pct.
The revenue of 10 billion yuan and millions of terminals continue to advance, and the growth space in the future can be expected. On the product side, grasp the two categories of melon seeds + nuts, and continue to promote the goal of "10 billion income" (including tax). Melon seeds have developed along the path of improving the quality of red bags, extending the flavor of blue bags and upgrading the high-end of Kui Zhen. Driven by the sinking of channels and bulk substitution, red bags have continued to achieve steady growth. Blue bags have newly promoted rattan pepper, tangerine peel and sea melon seeds. With good market feedback, they will continue to expand the promotion of the city, comprehensively upgrade the quality and packaging of Kui Zhen and grasp the high-end market. Nuts grasp the big single product of daily nuts, with sales of nearly 1 billion in 2021, expand flavored daily nuts and nut innovative products, actively develop nut gift boxes, grasp the festival group purchase market, and promote the penetration of third and fourth tier cities. On the channel side, the company firmly promotes the "one million terminals" plan, plans to reach one million terminals in the next 3-5 years from 400000 terminals at the beginning of 2021, and increases the channel sinking and coverage of vulnerable markets. The company jointly promoted digital terminals with dealers in 2021q2, including sales visits by salesmen and mobile sales of terminals, and effectively increased the company's control over terminals. At present, nearly 120000 terminals have been covered, and all terminals will be covered in the construction of millions of terminals in the future.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will realize an income of RMB 7.086/82.06/9.478 billion from 2022 to 2024, a year-on-year increase of + 18.4% / + 15.8% / + 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.118/13.16/1.517 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 20.4% / + 17.7% / + 15.3%, EPS of 2.21/2.60/2.99 yuan and corresponding PE of 26x / 22x / 19x respectively. The current valuation of the company is slightly higher than the current 2022 expected valuation of the snack food sector 22x (wind consensus expectation, arithmetic mean method), but considering that the company continues to carry out product innovation and channel expansion, and will fully benefit from the release of price increase dividends in the short term, maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, the cost side is higher than expected, food safety risks, etc.
