\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 21 Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) )
Event: the company released the quarterly report for the first quarter of 2022. In Q1 of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 18.304 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.35%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 266 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.1%. Both revenue and performance growth exceeded expectations. According to the financial report of Sandian, the revenue of 21q1 is about RMB 2.18 billion. Assuming that the revenue level of Q1 in 22 years is flat year-on-year, the growth rate of Q1 revenue of the company after deducting the sound of three films is about 16%.
The overall growth rate of air conditioning business is bright, and ice washing remains relatively stable
Central air business: according to the industry online data, from January to February, the domestic sales volume of multi online industry increased by 56.2% year-on-year, the domestic sales volume of Hisense Hitachi multi online industry increased by 80% year-on-year, and the share of sales volume reached 23.5%. Compared with Q4 + 4.5pct, year-on-year + 3.1pct. Combined with the data of the three parties, we expect the company's central air business Q1 to achieve high growth, and the market share has increased month on month.
White electricity business: according to the industry online data, the company's domestic / export sales of air conditioners from January to February were + 22.2% / + 29.7% year-on-year respectively, and the internal and external sales of air conditioners in the same period were - 4.4% / 4.7% year-on-year respectively. The domestic and foreign sales Q1 of air conditioner has achieved relatively rapid growth. The domestic / export sales of the company's refrigerators were + 4.0% / - 4.5% year-on-year respectively. Combined with the home factors brought by the epidemic, we expect the company's ice washing business to achieve a small single digit growth in both domestic and foreign sales in Q1.
In terms of the three power companies: according to the annual report, the company has consolidated the three power companies since June 21. After calculation, it can be concluded that the three power companies achieved a revenue of 5.114 billion yuan and a net profit of -155million yuan from June to December. According to the disclosure of the three power companies, the three power companies achieved a revenue of 4.93 billion yuan and a recurring profit of -830 million yuan from April to December in 20 years. After the acquisition of Sandian, the company's operating conditions have improved significantly and the loss range has narrowed. Based on this, we believe that the loss range of Sandian Q1 is expected to further narrow under the condition of relatively stable income.
Profitability is under pressure year-on-year, and it is expected to improve after excluding the impact of the three power companies
In 2022, Q1's gross profit margin was 18.53%, year-on-year -2.2pct, and its net profit margin was 3.12%, year-on-year -0.37pct. We expect that the year-on-year decline in the company's profitability is mainly due to the consolidation of the third report. We expect that the profitability of the company will be improved if the three films are excluded. The source is expected to be mainly due to the growth of Hisense Hitachi's business and the loss reduction brought by the optimization of product structure. The company's Q1 sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates in 2022 were 10.47%, 2.31%, 2.81% and - 0.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.61, + 1.08, + 0.09 and + 0.25pct.
Operating cash flow is under pressure year-on-year, and the operation cycle increases
Balance sheet: the company's inventory growth rhythm is basically consistent with the growth rate of revenue; Notes receivable + accounts receivable and contract liabilities are slightly lower than the growth rate of revenue, which is mainly due to the rapid growth of the company's export sales in 21 years and the longer collection cycle of export sales compared with domestic sales. The relevant impact in 22 years is partially offset by the high growth rate of domestic sales; The growth rate of the company's contract liabilities is lower than that of its revenue. We believe that the company purchases relevant raw materials in advance because the cost of raw materials continues to be high since Q1. In terms of operating capacity, the turnover days of inventory, accounts receivable and accounts payable at the end of Q1 in 2022 were 49.72, 44.01 and 69.82 days respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.85, + 0.76 and + 9.06 days. In terms of cash flow statement, the net cash flow from the company's Q1 operating activities in 2022 was -203million yuan, a year-on-year -287.9%, and the company's operating cash flow fell year-on-year, mainly due to the consolidation of the three power companies.
Investment advice
The second and third growth curves of the company's central air and thermal management are clear: in terms of central air conditioning, multi online achieved high growth in the first quarter, the company's leading position is stable, and it is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the improvement of real estate to stimulate demand in the future; In terms of thermal management, the reform effect of the company's acquisition of Sandian is prominent, and the loss is greatly reduced. In the future, it is expected to contribute to the income by virtue of the strong product power of Sandian superimposing Hisense's cost and manufacturing advantages. In terms of profit, the three films in the consolidated statement will affect the profit level, but factors such as the continuous growth of the follow-up central air business, the turnaround of the three power companies and the easing of cost pressure are expected to bring about the continuous repair of profitability. It is estimated that the net profit of the company on 22 / 23 / 24 will be 1.43/16/1.69 billion yuan respectively (consistent with the previous value), corresponding to pe1.0 billion yuan 4X / 9.3x / 8.8x, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, especially in the real estate market; Market competition risk; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Overseas business and exchange rate change risk; Risk of loss of human resources.
