\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 48 He Bei Cheng De Lolo Company Limited(000848) )
Main points:
Event description:
The company released its annual report for 21 years, with a revenue of 2.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 31.77%; 4q21 outperformed expectations, with revenue of 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39.48%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 169 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.15%.
4q21 revenue growth is partly due to the early spring festival in 22, which may affect the growth rate of 1q22. The company’s peak sales season is mainly distributed in the first and fourth quarters. Historically, the change of the time of the Spring Festival will cause fluctuations in the growth rate of revenue according to the statement. The Spring Festival in 2014, 2017 and 2022 is in January. The ratio of 1q revenue in 2014 and 2017 to the change of 4q-1q contract liabilities (advance receipts) of the previous year is about 1.4, which is significantly smaller than that in the later years of the Spring Festival, suggesting that the advance of the Spring Festival will significantly increase the 4Q revenue of the previous year. Combined with the investigation of 640 million contract liabilities and channels at the end of 21, we predict that 1q22 revenue growth is about the median single digit.
The gross profit margin of 4q21 was 48.27%, up from that of 3q21. The decline of 3.33pct in the whole year was mainly due to the rise in the price of tinsector. Tinsector packaging accounts for about 45% of the company’s operating costs. The price of tinsector has risen sharply in 21 years, and the average prices of 2h20 and 1q-4q21 have reached 6111, 7392, 8886, 9014 and 8648 yuan / ton. The company began to implement new procurement contracts in the second half of last year, and the gross profit margin of 3q21 decreased significantly. At present, the price of tinsector has dropped, with an average price of about 8500 yuan / ton, but it is expected that 1H22 gross profit margin is still difficult to improve.
Northern almond dew promotes deep cultivation of channels and expands the markets in southwest and East China with walnut dew. The company continues to promote the deep cultivation of the existing market in the strong northern region, including strengthening the development of blank sinking market and blank channels such as stations, campuses and catering. Walnut dew products were recovered in the southern market, with a revenue of nearly 50 million yuan in 21 years, a three-fold increase at the same time. At present, independent departments operate and are expected to continue the trend of high growth. In addition, the company develops plant protein drinks with low sugar, high protein and fruit juice flavors for young groups and southern consumers, which is expected to be on the market this year.
No profit distribution has been carried out for 21 years, and the repurchase of shares shows the support of major shareholders. The company has abundant cash flow, and the dividend payment rate has reached 58% since its listing. According to the needs of the company’s operation and development, the company plans not to make profit distribution in 2021, and all the retained earnings are used for the expenses of the company’s daily production and operation, share repurchase and other major events. At the same time, in order to convey growth confidence and maintain the company’s share price, it is planned to use the retained undistributed profit of RMB 200400 million to carry out share repurchase to cancel, reduce the registered capital and improve the return on investment of the company’s shareholders.
Investment advice
We expect the company’s revenue to be RMB 3.045 billion, RMB 3.678 billion and RMB 4.450 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6% / 20.8% / 21.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 660 million, RMB 787 million and RMB 955 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.9% / + 19.2% / + 21.4%. The EPS was 0.61, 0.73 and 0.89 respectively, and the corresponding PE was 14.70, 12.33 and 10.16 respectively. The peg in 22 years was less than 1, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Food safety risk, epidemic spreading risk, channel development and new product promotion are less than expected.
