On April 11, the three major stock indexes opened low and went down sharply. The Shanghai index fell more than 2.5% and fell to 3200 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell more than 3.5%, and the gem index fell more than 4% and fell to 2500 points, setting a new low in the year. The turnover of the two cities exceeded 950 billion yuan, and the net outflow of funds from the North was nearly 6 billion yuan.
As of the close, the Shanghai index fell 2.61% to 316713 points, the Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67% to 1152021 points, and the gem index fell 4.2% to 246204 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 963.7 billion yuan, and the net sales of northbound funds were 5.762 billion yuan.
On the disk, military industry, real estate, wine making, semiconductor and other sectors led the decline. The trend of lithium mining, lithium extraction from salt lakes, digital currency, automobile chips, lithium batteries, rare earth and other sectors was weak, while tourism, electric power, securities companies, building materials, chemical industry, insurance, medicine, banking, coal, steel and other sectors all fell; Logistics, agriculture and other sectors rose against the market, and seed industry, prefabricated vegetables, chemical fertilizer, new retail and other themes were active.
For the current market trend, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the market is in the bottom grinding period from the medium-term perspective, but it faces some challenges: the economy has entered the active destocking stage, and the epidemic has disturbed the economy; The rapid rise of US bond interest rate has not been stable, and there is uncertainty in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the geopolitical situation. At this time, investors should be patient and should not rush forward, waiting for the opportunity of fundamentals bottoming, the improvement of the external environment or strong easing of policies. If there is a significant adjustment in the market, they can also gradually layout. The layout direction focuses on early cycle varieties (real estate chain, etc.). If the subsequent US bond interest rate stabilizes and China’s broad currency strengthens, they can consider gradually increasing the allocation of growth.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that the performance of the first quarter was coming, the micro liquidity margin was repaired, the risk appetite remained neutral, and the shock trend continued in the short term. (1) The release of economic data in the first quarter may suppress profit expectations; With the advent of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the profitability of petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, basic chemical industry and other industries is expected to improve greatly. (2) The minutes of the Fed meeting are partial to Eagle, but China’s macro liquidity remains relatively loose; Foreign capital has flowed out recently, and new development funds and emotional funds may improve marginally. (3) Risk appetite is still suppressed by overseas austerity, geopolitical conflicts and epidemics, and the growth protection policy continues to boost sentiment.
In terms of industry allocation, we pay attention to policy oriented infrastructure and real estate. The first quarter performance forecast has a good cycle, benefiting from the medicine, compulsory consumption, media and computers of the epidemic. The industry pays attention to four directions: first, from the perspective of policy orientation, the steady growth policy is further introduced and implemented, and infrastructure related construction, building materials, digital economy, real estate and other industries with underlying economy deserve special attention; Second, from the perspective of performance orientation, the first quarter performance forecast began to be disclosed, and the profit expectation of cyclical industries such as petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals and steel may be better; Third, from the perspective of expected improvement, under the catalysis of the epidemic, the demand for anti epidemic, residents’ hoarding, online demand and digital governance demand have increased, and the related industries such as medicine, mandatory consumption, media and computer deserve attention; Fourth, from the perspective of oversold and high boom industries, industries such as medical services, military industry, semiconductor equipment and materials, and the upstream of new energy vehicles can also be concerned.
