March market review
In March 2022, the market fell deeply and rebounded. In the first two weeks of March, the external conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified, Powell hawks continued to disturb, China's social finance was significantly lower than expected, and the local epidemic accelerated. At the same time, there was a significant net outflow of funds going north, the historical low of public offering, private placement or approaching the stop loss line. Under the superposition of various factors, A-Shares continued to adjust. Subsequently, the Finance Committee held a special meeting, and all ministries and commissions quickly followed up and made positive statements. The market policy was basically established. With the gradual warming of the expectation of steady growth, the large financial sector represented by banks and real estate rose strongly, supporting the rebound of a shares. However, the internal and external pressure has not been relieved, and the kinetic energy of A-share rebound has gradually weakened by the end of March.
-- overall market activity rebounded. The turnover of wandequan a increased to 23.3 trillion yuan from 15.1 trillion yuan last month, and the average daily turnover rate increased to 1.36% from 1.25% last month; Gem refers to the transaction volume increased to 5.2 trillion yuan from 3.4 trillion yuan last month, and the daily average turnover rate increased to 1.70% from 1.66% last month.
-- coal and other industries are among the top performers. Coal (10.81%), real estate (9.52%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (2.94%), comprehensive (2.08%) and medicine and Biology (0.87%) led the increase.
-- the valuation of the relative cycle of consumption and growth has declined. From the perspective of PE relative ratio, the gem index / CSI 300 was 4.21, down from the previous month. The consumption / cycle was 2.71, down from the previous month; The growth / cycle was 2.98, down from the previous month; Growth / consumption was 1.10, up slightly from the previous month.
Industry recommendation in April
-- high quality regional banks: loose expectations form a positive catalyst, and high-quality regional banks are more elastic. Steady growth helped the repair of bank stocks, and loose expectations formed a positive catalyst; The high-quality regional banking business is in line with the policy direction, and the asset growth is more flexible.
-- state owned enterprise developers: more favorable policies for real estate are on the way, and the advantages of state-owned enterprise developers are prominent. More favorable real estate policies are on the way, and there is still some room for the market; The market-oriented clearing of the industry has accelerated, and the gross profit margin of state-owned enterprise developers has improved.
-- local infrastructure: steady growth and strong infrastructure certainty, and the market is expected to spread to local state-owned enterprises. The policy is firm in the goal of steady growth, and the uncertainty of infrastructure development is strong; There is sufficient motivation for local infrastructure listed enterprises to become a powerful country, and the market may spread to local state-owned enterprises.
-- chemical fertilizer: the tight supply and demand supports the high price, and the industry is strong, and the business cycle is higher than expected. Under the restriction of supply at home and abroad, the mismatch between supply and demand supports the continuous high price of chemical fertilizer; The high internal and external price difference lengthens the business cycle of the industry, and the integrated development supports medium and long-term growth.
-- shipping: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has stimulated the surge of tanker freight rates, the tension of supply chain and the shift of trade. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has stimulated the surge of oil freight rates, the tension of supply chain and the shift of trade; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may exacerbate the tension in the global supply chain and trigger the trade diversion of various countries.
Risk warning: overseas market volatility intensifies; The epidemic development exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeded expectations.
