Key investment points
Recent views:
The Ministry of industry and information technology and other six departments jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan, paying attention to the development opportunities of leading enterprises in the petrochemical industry. On April 7, 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology, jointly with the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of science and technology, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of emergency management and the national energy administration, released the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan on the official website of the Ministry of industry and information technology. The opinions includes eight parts: overall requirements, improving development level, promoting industrial structure adjustment, optimizing and adjusting industrial layout, promoting industrial digital transformation, accelerating green and low-carbon development, consolidating the foundation of safe development and strengthening organizational guarantee.
In the "(III) main objectives" of the "General requirements", the opinion points out that - industrial structure.
The production concentration of bulk chemical products was further improved, and the capacity utilization rate reached more than 80%; The guarantee level of ethylene equivalent has been greatly improved, and the guarantee level of new chemical materials has reached more than 75% "—— Green safety. Energy consumption and carbon emissions per unit product of bulk products decreased significantly.
In "promoting industrial structure adjustment" (IV) strengthening classified measures and scientifically regulating industrial scale "
The "opinions" put forward that "orderly promote the 'oil reduction and chemical increase' of refining and chemical projects, extend the petrochemical industry chain, enhance the supply capacity of high-end polymers, special chemicals and other products, strictly control the new production capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus and other industries, prohibit the new production capacity of (poly) vinyl chloride using mercury, and accelerate the exit of inefficient and backward production capacity"; In the same part of "(V) accelerating the transformation and upgrading to improve the competitiveness of the industry", the opinions put forward "guiding the lightweight of olefin raw materials, optimizing the structure of aromatic raw materials, and improving the utilization level of by-product resources such as C5 and C9".
The guidance on the improvement of the production concentration of bulk commodities and the guarantee level of ethylene may improve the industry concentration and orderly expansion of ethylene production capacity, and help the approval process of relevant projects of leading enterprises in the petrochemical industry; The guidance on "reducing oil and increasing chemical production" of refining projects, strictly controlling new refining capacity, accelerating the exit of inefficient and backward production capacity and the decline of energy consumption and carbon emission per unit product of bulk commodities may highlight the internal advantages of private refining and chemical enterprises with low cost, low energy consumption and integration while promoting the exit of backward production capacity, and help promote the approval process of their new upstream and downstream projects. Recommended Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) .
The guidance on the lightweight of olefin raw materials and the improvement of ethylene guarantee level may help promote the approval of light hydrocarbon route olefin projects, especially relatively low-energy and lightweight raw material route projects such as ethane cracking to ethylene, and open up the space for enterprise growth. Satellite chemistry, a leading enterprise in China's light hydrocarbon route, is recommended.
Petrochemical products with the top five price increases this week: methyl methacrylate (East China), 8.78%; Ethylene (FOB in Korea), 2.26%; Propylene oxide (East China), 1.75%; C4 feed gas (Qilu Petrochemical), 1.54%; Pure benzene (East China), 1.13%.
Petrochemical products with the top five price declines this week: propane (CIF frozen price in East China), - 10.44%; Maleic anhydride, - 5.15%; Butadiene (East China), - 4.65%; Brent futures, - 3.65%; WTI futures, - 3.26%.
The top five petrochemical products with price difference increase this week: propylene propane, 63.44%; Ethylene glycol ethylene, 26.81%; PTA-PX，13.48%； Ethylene naphtha, 10.7%; Pet (semi gloss) - raw material, 6.58%.
Petrochemical products with the top five price difference declines this week: alkylated oil - C4, - 22.22%; EO ethylene, - 19.07%; Maleic anhydride C4, - 17.99%; Polyester filament POY - raw material, - 14.35%; Pet (bottle) - raw material, - 14.33%.
IEA launched the collective release and storage plan, the US crude oil inventory increased, and the international oil price fell. On the supply side, according to chinanews.com, this week, the IEA of the International Energy Agency revealed that it would release 120 million barrels of oil reserves to ease the pressure of rising oil prices. At the same time, Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, said on the social platform that among the 120 million barrels of reserves planned to be released, including 60 million barrels released by the United States from the strategic oil reserves. Since then, Japan, South Korea and other countries have announced corresponding release plans. In addition, weekly EIA data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories rose this week. On the demand side, the increased pressure on epidemic prevention and control in Asia has raised the market's hidden worries on the demand side to a certain extent. Overall, the international crude oil price fell this week. As of April 9, 2022, the settlement price of WTI futures this week decreased by 3.3% to 96.03 US dollars / barrel compared with last week; The settlement price of Brent futures decreased by 3.6% to US $100.58/barrel compared with last week.
As of April 1, 2022, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2421000 barrels to 412 million barrels month on month compared with last week; US strategic crude oil inventory decreased by 3.742 million barrels to 565 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.467 million barrels and distillate oil inventory increased by 771000 barrels; In the week of April 1, 2022, the crude oil output of the United States was 11.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 100000 barrels per day compared with last week; The average daily net processing volume of American refineries in the week was 15.948 million barrels, an increase of 35000 barrels / day month on month, and the gross processing volume was 16.529 million barrels / day, an increase of 71000 barrels / day month on month. The operating rate of refineries was 92.5%, an increase of 0.4 PCTs According to Baker Hughes oilfield services data, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased by 13 to 546 in the week ending April 8, 2022 compared with the previous week.
The supply increased, but the cost rose, and the LNG price was flat month on month. On the supply side, according to the data of Longzhong information, China's LNG output this week was 403100 tons (56.184 million m3), down 0.4% month on month; China's 13 terminals received a total of 17 LNG carriers, an increase of 1 on a month on month basis, and the arrival volume was 1.2141 million tons, an increase of 20.39% on a month on month basis. Considering the imported gas source and China's gas source, the supply end has improved. On the demand side, China's total LNG demand this week was 459600 tons, a month on month decrease of 24000 tons (- 0.52%). From the cost side, the transaction price of Northwest gas source this week was 4.32-4.51 yuan / m3, up 0.07 yuan and 0.25 yuan respectively from the low-end and high-end prices last week. On the whole, although the supply and demand tends to be loose, the LNG price remains relatively stable this week with the support of the cost side. As of April 8, the ex factory price of LNG in China was 7150 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week.
The price of PX fell and the price difference of pta-px expanded. In terms of supply, according to the data of China National fiber network on April 8, 2022, Yisheng Ningbo 32 million ton unit, 42 million ton unit and Yisheng new material two sets of 3.6 million ton units, with a total of 4 sets of 11.2 million ton capacity reduced to 80% at the end of the week; The 4.5 million ton unit of Fuhua will be reduced to 50% operation, which is expected to last for one month; The 800000 ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical stopped on April 6, and the restart time has not been determined yet; The 1 million ton unit of Sichuan Chemical Energy Investment Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance from April 7 The Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) 122 million ton unit is planned to be shut down for maintenance on April 15.
The total capacity of PTA industry this week was 73.185 million tons. This week, PTA maintenance capacity is about 12.846 million tons, long-term shutdown capacity is 5.25 million tons, the actual production capacity is 55.089 million tons, and the operating rate of production capacity is 80.04%. As of April 8, China National fiber network data showed that the inventory of PTA circulation link was 1.825 million tons, a decrease of 10000 tons compared with last week. The price of PX (imported CFR) was US $1155 / ton, a decrease of US $17 / ton compared with last week. PTA (East China) price is 6080 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with last week; The price difference of pta-px (imported CFR) was 640 yuan / ton, 76% higher than that of last week
Yuan / ton.
The demand support is limited, and the price difference of polyester filament is narrowed. In terms of supply, according to the data of Baichuan information, the output of polyester filament this week was 703600 tons, a month on month decrease of 0.51%. In terms of demand, since the Qingming Festival, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the market procurement is still dominated by just needed procurement, with limited support. As of April 8, 2022, the inventories of DTY, POY and FDY in polyester factory were 33, 29 and 32 days respectively, with a month on month increase of + 1 day. As of April 9, 2022, the price of DTY has decreased by 100 yuan / ton to 9400 yuan / ton, the price of FDY has decreased by 50 yuan / ton to 8300 yuan / ton, and the price of POY has decreased by 150 yuan / ton to 7800 yuan / ton. The price difference between POY and raw materials narrowed by 145 yuan / ton to 868 yuan / ton, the price difference between DTY and raw materials narrowed by 95 yuan / ton to 2468 yuan / ton, and the price difference between FDY and raw materials narrowed by 45 yuan / ton to 1368 yuan / ton.
The terminal demand declined and the price difference of acrylic acid narrowed. In terms of supply, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of China's acrylic acid industry this week was 81.06%. Fell 0.46 PCTs month on month In terms of demand, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of butyl acrylate industry increased by 1.95 PCTs to 70.51% month on month this week. However, in terms of terminal demand, the operating rate of tape master coil fell by 3.79 PCTs to 52.64% this week. Overall, the decline in terminal demand may compress the profit space of upstream raw materials to a certain extent. As of April 8, the price of acrylic acid was 12300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last week; The price difference between acrylic acid and propylene was 6198 yuan / ton, 416 yuan / ton narrower than last week.
The supply increased and the demand fell, and the price difference of butyl acrylate decreased slightly. On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of butyl acrylate industry increased by 1.95 PCTs to 70.51%. Demand side, according to long Chung information, this week acrylic emulsion operation rate of 30%, the ratio is flat. The operating rate of tape master coil industry was 52.64%, down 3.79% month on month. As of April 8, the price of butyl acrylate was 13300 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last week; The price difference between butyl acrylate and acrylic acid was 5920 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton month on month.
Demand weakened and the price difference of maleic anhydride fell. In terms of supply, according to Longzhong information, the operating rate of maleic anhydride benzene process in China this week was 66.67%, up 11.60 PCTs month on month, and the operating rate of butane process was 85.29%, down 8.83 PCTs month on month.
In terms of demand, according to Longzhong information, the operating load of downstream unsaturated resin was 20%, down 5 PCTs month on month.
Overall, the impact of the decline in demand side is more significant, and the product price difference has shrunk. As of April 8, the price of maleic anhydride was 10500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 570 yuan / ton compared with last week; The price difference between maleic anhydride and C4 was 3108 yuan / ton, with a month on month contraction of 682 yuan / ton last week.
The spot supply on the supply side is tight and there is a reduction expectation, and the price of butanone rises slightly. On the supply side, China's butanone production this week was 9367 tons, unchanged month on month. However, due to the impact of the epidemic in East China, the supply circulation is relatively small, and the follow-up parking of Ningbo jinfacun is expected. On the demand side, the downstream coating, adhesive and other industries remained relatively stable. As of April 8, the price of butanone ( Zibo Qixiang Tengda Chemical Co.Ltd(002408) East China) was 14900 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton from last week.
Under the weak demand, the cost still needs to be transmitted, and the price difference of adipic acid narrowed. In terms of supply, according to the consulting data of suijie, some manufacturers in China's adipic acid industry carried out maintenance this week, the construction started to decline, and the supply side may shrink slightly.
Downstream, affected by the epidemic, the start-up of TPU, slurry and sole stock solution industry is still relatively low. From the cost side, this week, pure benzene (East China) and nitric acid (East China) increased by 95 yuan / ton and 100 yuan / ton to 8530 yuan / ton and 2508 yuan / ton respectively. Overall, under the background of lack of support on the demand side, on the one hand, the product price has declined, on the other hand, the cost of raw materials still needs to be transmitted. As of April 8, the price of adipic acid (East China) was 12350 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week; Adipic acid pure benzene nitric acid price difference is 3524 yuan / ton, a decrease of 263 yuan / ton compared with last week.
Focus on the company: from the perspective of product raw material price difference, during q1-q3 in 2021, PX crude oil and pta-px price difference are still in the bottom range, while polyester filament raw material and price difference have been repaired compared with 2020, and the profits of private refining enterprises and polyester filament enterprises have increased significantly year-on-year. In the Q3 single quarter of 2021, due to the slight drop in the price difference of polyester filament products, the performance contracted slightly, but still maintained a high growth rate year-on-year. The reason is that the scale and process advantages of newly-built private refining are obvious, the cost advantage is prominent, and the bottom area of the industry still recorded excess profits. With the improvement of demand in the future, it is expected that the profits of products such as refined oil, PX, PTA and polyester filament will be repaired from the bottom, and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) and other private refining enterprises are recommended.
Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) actively extends the industrial chain to the upstream, participates in the 40 million T / a refining and chemical integration project of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and has been fully put into operation, forming the whole industrial chain pattern of refining PX PTA polyester filament. Product diversification helps the company resist the risk of periodic fluctuation, and the cost advantage of refining and chemical project ensures the strong profitability of the company. At the same time, the second phase of the project put into operation in January 2022 has also further improved the proportion of chemicals and product added value, and is expected to further increase the company's investment income in the future. As a leading enterprise of polyester filament, the production and sales volume of polyester filament has ranked first in China for many years. At present, the production capacity of Yangkou 5 million tons of PTA and 2.4 million tons of polyester filament, Shuyang 2.4 million tons of polyester filament (staple fiber) and Fujian Zhangzhou 2 million tons of polyester fiber are under steady construction and promotion. The production and sales volume of the company is expected to maintain growth in the future.
Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , the company is a leading enterprise in the PTA industry, with a PTA production capacity of about 16 million tons / year and an equity production capacity of about 7.55 million tons / year. At present, there are also 3 million tons / year PTA production capacity of Yisheng new materials (equity production capacity of 1.5 million tons / year) under continuous construction. With the full commissioning of the 40 million T / a refining and chemical integration phase I project of Zhejiang Petrochemical at the end of 2019, the company has opened up the whole industrial chain of crude oil fuel oil naphtha PX PTA polyester. Zhejiang Petrochemical refining and chemical project has obvious scale, supporting advantages and rich product types. It not only has strong profitability, but also helps the company resist the risk of periodic fluctuation.
At present, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project has been fully completed and put into operation, which will help Zhejiang Petrochemical products to further improve the added value, production and marketing scale, and further enhance its profitability. At present, most of the price differences of main products of the refining and chemical project still have room for repair. In the future, with the further repair of downstream demand, the profit of the refining and chemical project is expected to improve accordingly.
Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , the company is a leading enterprise in PTA industry. At present, it has a PTA production capacity of 11.6 million tons and is the largest PTA factory in the world. The company has a high degree of upstream and downstream integration, and has formed a whole industry chain pattern of "crude oil aromatics, olefin PTA, ethylene glycol polyester new materials". Upstream, the company has 20 million tons of refining and chemical integration project, supporting 4.5 million tons of PX capacity; Downstream, as of 2021, H1 company has a production capacity of 2.35 million tons of polyester civil filament, 400000 tons of industrial filament, 240000 tons of engineering plastics, 266000 tons of polyester film and 33000 tons of PBAT, with a relatively rich variety of products. At present, relying on the upstream refining and chemical projects, the company has abundant raw material reserves and stepped up the layout of downstream new material projects: on January 26, 2022, the company officially announced that it plans to build a high-performance polyester project with an annual output of 2.6 million tons and a high-performance resin and new material project with an annual output of 1.6 million tons; On December 26, 2021, signed a contract with Zhipu of Japan and Qingdao Zhongke Hualian to introduce 12 wet lithium battery diaphragm production lines in Suzhou, with a production capacity of 1.6 billion m2; On June 24, 2021, three polyester new material projects and supporting chemical projects with a total of 2.75 million tons were announced successively. In the future, with the repair of refining and chemical product demand and the continuous expansion of its own new material platform, the profitability is expected to continue to improve.
Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) , the company is a comprehensive modern polyurethane leading enterprise with a leading position in the fields of spandex, adipic acid and sole stock solution in China. At present, the production capacity of the company's three main products is the first in China, which has a large scale advantage; Relying on continuous investment in technological transformation and new project construction, the company's production cost has been reduced year by year, and the level of energy consumption and material control is at the top of the industry, forming a significant low-cost advantage; The industrial chain of "adipic acid polyester polyol sole stock solution" can flexibly adjust the proportion of production and marketing, restrain fluctuations and improve the company's comprehensive profitability, which has the advantage of integration. At present, the company's Chongqing base "100000 t / a differentiated spandex project" phase II 50000 T / a production capacity has entered the commissioning stage; The remaining capacity of the "1.15 million T / a adipic acid project" and the "300000 t / a differentiated spandex project" are also under steady construction and put into operation. We expect that the company's competitive advantage will be more obvious in the future.
Satellite chemical is a leading enterprise in China's acrylic acid and ester industry, with a high degree of industrial chain integration. Currently, the upstream of the company's C3 industrial chain has 900000 T / a PDH capacity, and the downstream has 660000 T / a acrylic acid and 750000 T / a acrylate capacity, 450000 T / a polypropylene capacity, 150000 T / a sap capacity and 220000 T / a hydrogen peroxide capacity. With the successful commissioning of the first phase of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Petrochemical olefin comprehensive utilization project on May 20, 2021, the company's products were officially expanded to the C2 industrial chain. At present, the company has gradually formed "propylene acrylic acid and ester polymer emulsion /SAP", "ethylene -PE/EO/MEG" double industry chain pattern. In addition, the projects with an annual output of 350000 tons of polypropylene and 250000 tons of hydrogen peroxide were carried out smoothly Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Petrochemical olefin utilization project phase II has entered the installation phase; An agreement has been signed with skgc of South Korea to jointly build a 40000 t / a EAA project; In March 2021, a new material and energy integration project was signed with the Management Committee of Dushan Port Economic Development Zone, including 800000 T / a PDH, 800000 T / a butyl octanol and 120000 T / a neopentyl glycol capacity; On December 30, it was announced that it planned to invest in the new green chemical new material industrial park project in Xuwei new area, and planned to build 200000 t / a ethanolamine, 800000 T / a polystyrene and 100000 t / A in three phases α- Olefin and supporting Poe, 750000 T / a carbonate series production units and supporting projects. In addition, the company changed its name to "satellite chemistry" to strengthen the development strategy of new low-carbon chemical materials; Promote the share repurchase plan and the shareholding plan of business partners, improve the incentive mechanism and help the long-term development of the company. Generally speaking, the company has abundant reserves of future projects, steady progress, clear strategy and considerable growth potential.
Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , the company is a leading differentiated fiber manufacturer in China. At present, it has a production capacity of 2.3 million T / a polyester filament and 3.9 million T / a PTA. At present, the company has many new production capacity / projects under construction / promotion: the 200000 t / a production capacity of Wujiang base is expected to be put into operation in 2022; Suqian Siyang No. 2 chemical fiber production base has a capacity of 250000 T / a recycled fiber and 500000 T / a functional fiber; Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 16 million T / a refining and chemical integration project atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit has been successfully handed over to China and the crude oil quota has been approved. After the completion of the project, the improvement of production and sales volume will bring significant growth to the company's performance. At the same time, it will promote the company to form the advantage of the whole industrial chain of refining PX PTA polyester filament and help the company overcome cyclical fluctuations; The reorganization with sierbang petrochemical, a subsidiary of the same parent company, was approved. The latter is currently the leading enterprise of EVA and acrylonitrile in China. After the reorganization, it can not only solve the problem of horizontal competition among different companies under the same parent company when the company is listed, but also significantly expand the category richness and production scale of petrochemical products downstream of listed companies, expand the industrial chain and enhance the synergy between various projects, Improve the company's comprehensive profitability and risk resistance. Overall, the company's future product line is expected to be significantly improved in terms of production capacity and industrial chain, and the future can be expected.
Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , the company is one of the leading enterprises in China's polyester filament industry. The company focuses on "two continents and two lakes"
The base and the 14th five year plan of "two 10 million tons" are advancing steadily and expanding the scale of production and marketing. The annual production capacity of polyester staple fiber and polyester staple fiber in Dushan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. is 2.3 million tons, and the annual production capacity of polyester staple fiber and polyester staple fiber in Dushan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. is 2.0 million tons, and the annual production capacity of polyester staple fiber and pta-1 million tons The new polyester material integration project with an annual output of 2.7 million tons, the functional and super simulated differentiated fiber project with an annual output of 1.8 million tons of Zhonglei chemical fiber are under planning and promotion, and there is considerable room for growth in the future.
With the planned projects gradually put into operation, the company's industrial chain integration, large-scale and low-cost advantages are expected to further appear and enhance the profitability of the company.
Risk tip: the risk of macroeconomic downturn, the risk that the demand for chemical products is less than expected, and the risk of sharp decline in international oil prices.
