Since March, after two bottoms on March 9 and 16, A-Shares bottomed again on April 11, with the closing point second only to March 15. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.61% to close at 316713; The Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67% to close at 1152021; Gem index fell 4.20% to close at 246204; More than 1400 stocks in the two cities hit a new low this year, of which 64 companies with a market value of more than 50 billion yuan. In terms of technical indicators, there have been three bottoms of a shares. It remains to be seen whether they can stabilize in the future.
(market indexes fell across the board)
It is worth noting that before the opening, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 5.5 basis points to 2.764%, the yield of China’s 10-year Treasury bonds active bond 220003 was flat, and the valuation of Japanese and Chinese bonds was reported at 2.7525%. The interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds was upside down for the first time since 2010.
gem refers to a new low in the year
The reporter noted that on April 11, the gem index fell sharply by 4.20% and once hit a new low in the new year. As the largest weight of the gem index, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell sharply, which had a more negative impact on the trend of the index. On April 11, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) fell sharply by 7.27%. Since December 15, 2021, the gem has made a cumulative correction of nearly 30%.
Previously, there was a market rumor that “Ningde Bureau of industry and information technology informed that service enterprises would arrange production according to existing materials and would not enter raw materials”. In this regard, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) relevant people said that the government temporarily upgraded the epidemic prevention and control measures due to the recent individual epidemic in Ningde. The company attached great importance to it and strengthened communication and coordination with relevant government departments for epidemic prevention at the first time. At present, in order to maximize the market supply, the company strictly adopted grid management measures to ensure the orderly production of Ningde base.
industry sector showed a general downward trend, with more than 1400 stocks hitting a new low during the year and a substantial outflow of funds
The overall trend of the market is poor, and all industry sectors also show a general downward trend. On April 11, A-Shares fell in all sectors except agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Among them, the power equipment sector fell by 5.43%, ranking the first, and non-ferrous metals, electronics, automobiles, computers, national defense and military industry all fell by more than 4%.
(all sectors of A-Shares fell sharply)
Under the general fall, Ann has finished her eggs. According to wind data, a total of more than 1400 stocks in the two cities hit a new low since their listing on April 11. Among 64 companies with a market value of more than 50 billion yuan, 64 of which have 64 companies with a market value of more than 50 billion yuan, including the ‘603 Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) morethan 20 industry leading companies with a market value of more than 100 billion, such as , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) and Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) .
From the perspective of capital flow in the industry, only one trading day on April 11, the net outflow of main capital exceeded more than 60 billion yuan, and all industries showed a net outflow trend, of which the net outflow of material sector exceeded 14 billion yuan, ranking the first; The net outflow of information technology and industrial sectors exceeded 10 billion yuan; The net outflow of finance, real estate and optional consumption sectors is also obvious.
At the same time, northbound funds sold a net 5.761 billion yuan for four consecutive days. From the recent trend of funds going north, due to the lack of obvious profit-making effect, some risk averse funds choose to leave and wait.
The balance of the two loans also hit a new low in more than a year. As of April 8, the balance of A-share margin trading and securities lending was 1656503 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.533 billion yuan from 1662036 billion yuan on the previous trading day.
, the interest rate of US bonds is upside down, and recession concerns are increasing
For today’s market crash, some market participants believe that it has something to do with the upside down of the interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds.
Before trading on April 11, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds rose 5.5 basis points to 2.764%, and the interest rate of China US 10-year Treasury bonds reversed for the first time since 2010. This undoubtedly caused the market to worry about the economic recession.
Affected by high inflation, Fed officials continue to strengthen their expectation of raising interest rates. They will raise interest rates in the remaining six interest rate meetings this year or each time, and raise the benchmark interest rate to 2% during the year. As a result, the yield of US Treasury bonds continued to rise, and the 10-year US Treasury bonds rose above 2.75%, which was the first time since 2019. The 2-year US Treasury bonds and 10-year US Treasury bonds that the market was most concerned about were once upside down, and other kinds of US Treasury bonds were upside down to varying degrees.
Historically, not every time the Fed raises interest rates will lead to the upside down of US bond yields, but almost every time the two-year and 10-year yields of US bonds are upside down, the US economy has experienced recession and even economic crisis.
In China, due to the slowdown of real estate growth and local epidemic and other factors, the market easing expectation is heating up.
In this regard, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) global chief economist Guan Tao said that the United States is experiencing high inflation once in 40 years, and the current moderate inflation level in China is an important background for the re dislocation of monetary policies between China and the United States. Given that the focus of US monetary policy is “anti inflation”, China’s monetary policy is focusing on “stable growth”, which is the main reason for the further narrowing of the interest rate gap between China and the United States. This is not without precedent in history. More than a decade ago, the yield of China US Treasury bonds was often inverted, and even the history of long-term yield inversion continued until the first half of 2010.
expert organization: China is different from the past, and the market may gradually get out of undervaluation
At the same time, Guan Tao said that unlike in the past, China’s current account revenue and expenditure is not only still surplus, but also more balanced. The RMB exchange rate is still strong, but also tends to be balanced and reasonable. Adhering to the implementation of a flexible exchange rate policy is the key for the central bank to fulfill the “self focus” of monetary policy. The domestic priority of monetary policy of major countries is to mainly serve China’s growth, employment and price stability objectives. Exchange rate policy is responsible for the external economic balance and becomes a shock absorber to absorb internal and external shocks.
As for the impact of a shares, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) said that when the interest rate spread between China and the United States is narrowed due to the mismatch between China and the United States, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are often under pressure.
The A-share market is facing the dual pressure of fundamentals and liquidity, and the overall market trend is under pressure; The decline of Hong Kong stock market, which is more direct due to the tightening of US dollar liquidity, is often greater than that of a shares; The US stock market tends to rise under the background of good economic demand in the United States.
However, in terms of its influence, the systematic position reduction of domestic capital itself at this stage may be a more important reason for the decline. In the second half of the year, with the emergence of the inflection point of China US interest rate difference (or the last drop of US stocks after the hawkish interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve), the market may gradually get out of the downturn pattern.
