Today, the A-share market once again showed a general decline, in which the gem and the science and technology innovation board continued to play the role of the leader, and both reached a new low in stages. It is worth noting that the Kechuang 50 index fell below the 1000 point mark for the first time today, and 1000 is also the base point of the first day of listing of the Kechuang 50 index.
At the same time, today's gem index also hit a new low this year. In terms of decline, the performance of Kechuang 50 index and gem index since this year is relatively similar. However, in the general decline market, there are still some local strength against the trend. For example, the performance of B shares, which were marginalized many years ago, can be called amazing this year, and the performance in major indexes is second only to the dividend index.
The lifting pressure of the scientific innovation board is obvious
Today, the gem and the sci-tech innovation board have once again played the role of leading losers. Today, the Kechuang 50 index fell below the 1000 point mark for the first time since its establishment, and 1000 is also the base point of the Kechuang 50 index.
However, looking back on the history of the gem index, falling below the base point of the index does not seem to be a bottom signal. The index base point of the gem index is also 1000 points, but it fell below the 1000 point mark shortly after the index was released in June 2010.
Subsequently, in the two-year period from April 2011 to April 2013, the gem index almost all operated below 1000 points, and once fell below 600 points in December 2012. However, as the saying goes, "the tide will turn around". Since July 2013, after confirming that the gem index has effectively broken through the 1000 point mark, it has never fallen below this point.
Although the gem index is still quite far away from the base point, this round of decline in the index has not shown an end signal this year. Today, the gem index has hit a new low again. In terms of decline, the performance of the internal medicine record 50 index and the gem index are relatively close, leading the decline in the market.
The head of an insurance company research institute analyzed and pointed out to the reporter of the daily economic news today that one of the main factors for the recent continuous decline of the "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" index is that the valuation of the core heavyweights of the two indexes is still high, "At present, the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) valuation of the largest heavyweight stock of Kechuang 50 is on the high side, while the Pb of Hong Kong stock is only 0.96 times, while the A-share is 3.09 times. The largest heavyweight stock of gem index is Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , which has accumulated too much increase before, overdrawn more fundamentals, and the stock price deviates too far from the relevant average. There are many similar situations in other heavyweights of Kechuang 50 and gem index, that is, the valuation is too high, deviates far from the value center, and there may be adjustment pressure."
For the future trend of the science and innovation board, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) chief strategist Yi Bin told reporters: "At present, we still need to pay attention to the pressure of lifting the ban on the restricted shares of the science and innovation board in the second half of the year. It has been three years since the opening of the board in June 2019, and the restricted shares of the first batch of listed companies will be lifted gradually. From the data, the scale of lifting the ban on the science and innovation board from April to August this year is expected to reach 832 billion yuan. Affected by the accelerated expansion of IPO capacity of the science and innovation board in recent years, the third quarter will be the window period for the centralized lifting of the ban on the science and innovation board, of which the total amount of lifting the ban in July is expected Above 250 billion yuan, the total amount of lifting the ban in August reached 110 billion yuan. In addition, the pressure of lifting the ban on the science and innovation board is relatively large. In November, the scale of lifting the ban is expected to reach 120 billion yuan. "
"Judging from the performance of the Kechuang 50 Index in the past two years, it often brings emotional disturbance in the early stage of the peak of the lifting of the ban. We think we may need to wait patiently for the gradual lifting of the ban on restricted shares on the Kechuang board before ushering in a new round of investment opportunities." Yi Bin pointed out.
The B-share index bucked the trend and strengthened this year
Since 2022, although the stock market has been adjusted as a whole, B shares, which have been marginalized and problems left over by history to be solved, have a strong trend. So far, the B-share index has risen by 0.2% this year, second only to the dividend index in the performance of the major core indexesP align = "center" annual K-line chart of B-share index
Historically, B shares have never missed every round of bull and bear in the market, and there is also the saying that B shares are the "leading indicator" of a shares. However, in recent years, with the continuous decline of the liquidity of B shares, in the view of insiders, the role of the leading indicators of B shares has been weakened.
The reporter noted that since this year, industries related to steady growth have always been in a leading position. According to the statistics of choice, among the 31 shenwanyi industries, only four industries have been popular in the year as of today's closing, namely coal, real estate, architectural decoration (corresponding to the infrastructure sector) and banking. Most of these industries are related to the concept of steady growth. Among them, the coal sector took the lead with an increase of 21.5% this year.
Since there has been no IPO in the B-share market in recent ten years, the content of emerging industries in the constituent stocks of the B-share index is relatively low. The top five heavyweights are Baoxin B, Yitai B shares, Lujia B shares, Hubei funded B shares, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) b shares, of which Yitai B shares and Lujia B shares are respectively from the "tuyere" of this year's market, that is, coal and real estate sectors. Yitai B shares have soared by 37.6% this year, and Hubei funded B shares, which also benefited from the industry boom, also performed well this year. In addition, since there is usually a discount between B shares and a shares, the performance of B shares will also be relatively resistant to decline at the time of the overall correction of the market.
However, in the context of the overall strength of B shares this year, there are also internal differentiation. For example, the Shenzhen B index and component B index of real estate and coal stocks, which lack weight, have also followed the decline of A-share market this year.
