Since the beginning of this year, the global capital market has continued to fluctuate due to unexpected factors such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the repeated epidemic. Under the severe market environment, private equity institutions generally bear great performance pressure. A number of private equity institutions take the initiative and choose to advance and retreat with investors.
Recently, 10 billion private equity and asset management held an online strategy meeting. Shi Jianjun, chairman of the board, apologized to investors on behalf of the company for the large withdrawal of product net value. At the same time, he announced that the management fee or fixed investment consulting fee for products with unit net value less than 1 would be temporarily reduced by 60%. The company also decided to suspend new products and focus on repairing the performance of old products.
At the strategy meeting, Dun and Xu Xiaoqing, chief economist of asset management, also shared the latest views on major asset investment. In his view, the US bond yield will stabilize or even fall at the current level, but after the Fed's table contraction starts in the second half of the year, the US bond yield may continue to rise, which will have a certain negative impact on global asset prices. In terms of commodities, overseas commodities will be stronger, focusing on crude oil, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and gold.
"underwater" products
reduce management fee by 60%
On behalf of the company, Shi Jianjun reported to the investors the overall performance of the products in the first quarter and apologized for the large pullback in the net value of the products. He said that while strengthening the allocation of large categories of assets, the company will face the rapidly changing economic and financial market environment outside China with an open and humble attitude and actively adjust and improve in reflection.
Specifically, Shi Jianjun put forward three reflections:
First of all, we should always adhere to the allocation of large categories of assets. Over the past few years, there have been more and more extreme situations in the capital market. In order to serve customers well, Dunhe asset management is trying to understand and understand how these new changes will affect investment, especially to strengthen the understanding and response to such long-term structural changes and the transformation of investment paradigm, and understand what these changes mean to the portfolio. In any case, adhering to the allocation of large categories of assets and decentralized allocation is the best choice to better deal with the new environment and challenges.
Secondly, face the rapidly changing macro and financial market environment with an open and humble attitude, and examine the weaknesses and deficiencies exposed by the company's "four theories + five systems" in the new environment from the root. It can be expected that the investment environment for a long time in the future will be unprecedented for investors in the financial market. But conversely, this complex and unknown environment is fair to all investors. Who can face the current mistakes and setbacks with an open mind and actively learn from the longer-term historical experience for reflection and summary, who can get the first opportunity in the future investment practice and become the leader under the new investment paradigm.
Next, Dunhe's investment research team should do in-depth research and thinking through big problems, big variables and big trends in the new environment, keep pace with the times and pay close attention to improving and iterating the theoretical system by learning from peer experts at home and abroad. We should also rethink at the meso level, find and grasp the new characteristics and laws of subdivided assets and meso structure under the new environment, and enrich the investment strategy on this basis.
Finally, we should not be disturbed by changes in the external environment and concentrate on building a large asset allocation platform. Compared with overseas developed countries, China's practice of major asset allocation investment is still in an early stage. Large asset allocation investment is a complete system and system, rather than relying on star fund managers or a team. Over the past few years, Dunhe has initially formed an investment and research system of "five more + four theories + five systems". To support this system, we need to establish a unified investment management risk control platform, a unified fund operation platform and a unified customer market service platform. In the past few years, great progress has been made in the construction of these three platform systems. This year, the pace has not slowed down, and the construction is still being promoted in a down-to-earth manner. In the later stage, targeted improvements will be made according to the problems exposed this year.
In order to better advance and retreat with investors, Shi Jianjun also introduced a series of adjustments decided by the company. From the perspective of investors' interests, the company decided to temporarily reduce the management fee or fixed investment advisory fee by 60% for the private equity funds independently issued and managed and the asset management products with Dunhe as the investment adviser when the unit net value is less than 1.000 yuan. In addition, in addition to the existing products, the old customers of the company's three series of products and the products already in the process of raising channel cooperation, the company suspended all new products to the outside world, focused on repairing the net value of the stock products and moving forward with the holders.
It is worth mentioning that in recent years, Dunhe asset management has continued to invest in its series of products with its own funds. By the end of the first quarter of this year, the company, fund managers and ordinary employees of the company had invested 29.81% of the company's products, accounting for nearly 30% of the company's management scale. This proportion of follow-up investment was in the forefront of the industry.
"To make these adjustments, we just want to express one meaning, that is, our interests are tied with the interests of investors. There is only one purpose of our work, that is, to create value for investors." Shi Jianjun said.
global asset prices under pressure
relatively optimistic and undervalued sectors
At the strategy meeting, Dun and Xu Xiaoqing, chief economist of asset management, also shared the latest views on investment in large categories of assets.
Xu Xiaoqing believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the recurrence of the epidemic are the two major accidents this year, and the short-term disturbance to the market may be coming to an end. When the yield of US bonds reaches the current level, it will stabilize periodically and may even fall back. However, after the Federal Reserve starts to shrink the table in the second half of the year, it is likely to continue to rise, which will have a certain negative impact on global asset prices.
"If we only consider the interest rate hike and the state of the economy, the cycle of yield recovery caused by the overseas bond selling is coming to an end. There are two potential risk points that may make the bond yield rise higher than expected. One is that the United States may raise the long-term neutral interest rate; the other is that the impact of this round of contraction may be relatively large. The scale of the Fed's current round of contraction is expected to reach 3 trillion, much higher than the previous round of 600 billion." Xu Xiaoqing said.
Xu Xiaoqing also pointed out that since the interest rate gap between China and the United States is at the bottom of history, China does not have much room to cut interest rates, but from the current situation, it is unlikely that China's treasury bond yields will rise sharply. The continuous narrowing of the short-term interest rate gap between China and the United States means that there is periodic depreciation pressure on the RMB. On the whole, the tightening of overseas liquidity will not have much impact on China.
In terms of commodities, Xu Xiaoqing believes that commodities with high correlation with China's demand may face adjustment pressure caused by insufficient demand in the future after the full release of optimism. Overseas commodities will also be stronger. They are more bullish on crude oil, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and gold, especially crude oil. Although war factors are eliminated, crude oil will still be stronger in commodities from the perspective of supply and demand and the long-term impact of sanctions.
"At present, China's residents' income and balance sheet are worse than those in 2020, so we can't expect too much for the rebound of retaliatory consumption in the future. The manufacturing profits brought by the high export momentum after the epidemic have not been translated into the growth of residents' income. Residents' income is more related to the service industry, and the prosperity of the service industry continues to decline due to the epidemic and industry rectification, resulting in the continuous decline of residents' income." Xu Xiaoqing said.
When analyzing China's economy, he also mentioned several "unprecedented": first, the growth rate of residents' income has fallen to the same level as the mortgage interest rate; Second, the new construction of real estate has experienced negative growth for three consecutive years, which appears for the first time; Third, this year's real estate construction area may have negative growth for the first time in history.
When it comes to the stock market that investors are most concerned about, Xu Xiaoqing believes that the adjustment of US stocks is not over yet. He has a relatively positive view on Hong Kong stocks and is cautious about a shares.
\u3000\u3000 "Both PE valuation and market value / m2 of Hong Kong stocks have been at historically low levels. The industries in which Hong Kong stocks rose in the first quarter were concentrated in the banking, real estate and energy sectors with high dividends. The theme of high dividends has not yet ended. There are 265 Hong Kong stocks with a dividend rate of more than 4% in the last three years, accounting for 10% of all Hong Kong stocks. In the A-share market, the policy bottom has emerged, and when real estate will stabilize is very critical. Repeated epidemics make it difficult to sustain the recovery of M1 driven by real estate sales From the perspective of value, the valuation of A-Shares has not returned to the historical low, and this year's style is more conducive to undervalued stocks. Historically, when the risk premium of CSI 300 reaches more than 5%, the index is expected to achieve a positive return of 20% ~ 30% in the next year and a half. Therefore, at this stage, we hope investors can maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude. " Said Xu Xiaoqing.
