Today (April 11) A shares encountered “Black Monday”. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board. After the inertia fell at the beginning of the session, the stock index continued to fluctuate weakly. There was no counterattack in the session. It weakened further in the afternoon and continued to dive downward in the late session. The stock index continued to decline after falling below the integer level of 3200 points, and this round of adjustment reached a new low in the downward trend of the gem.
As of the day’s closing of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 2.61% to 316713 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 3.67% to 1152021 points; The gem index fell 4.2% to 246204.
From the disk point of view, most industries and concept sectors performed miserably, only a few targets strengthened, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. In terms of industry, logistics, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, commercial department stores and other sectors rose against the trend; In terms of theme stocks, transgenic, express concept, community group purchase, prefabricated vegetable concept, civil explosion concept, chicken concept and aquaculture led the increase.
In terms of funds, the central bank announced on April 11 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on April 11, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%. As 10 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, the people’s Bank of China has realized zero delivery and zero return in the open market.
hot sector
Top 10 gainers in industry sector
Top 10 industry sector declines
Top 10 gainers in concept sector
Top 10 decline in concept sector
Monitoring unit
Top 10 net inflow of main forces
Top 10 net outflow of main force
northbound funds
southbound funds
message surface
1. According to the report of securities firm China, on the evening of April 10, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the construction of a national unified market (hereinafter referred to as the opinions), which provided an action program for the construction of a national unified market in the coming period from the overall and strategic perspective. The opinions put forward the main objectives of building a national unified market, including: continuously promoting the efficient and smooth development and scale expansion of the Chinese market; Accelerate the creation of a stable, fair, transparent and predictable business environment; Further reduce market transaction costs; Promote scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading; Cultivate new advantages in participating in international competition and cooperation.
2. According to the passenger Federation, in March 2022, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.579 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%. The retail trend in March was quite differentiated. From January to March, a total of 4.915 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 230000 vehicles. The overall trend was lower than expected.
3. According to the National Bureau of statistics, in March, the national consumer price rose by 1.5% year-on-year. Among them, the urban rose by 1.6% and the rural rose by 1.2%; Food prices fell by 1.5% and non food prices rose by 2.2%; Consumer goods prices rose 1.7% and service prices rose 1.1%. From January to March, on average, the national consumer price rose by 1.1% over the same period last year. In March, the ex factory prices of industrial producers in China rose by 8.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month on month; The purchase price of industrial producers increased by 10.7% year-on-year and 1.3% month on month. In the first quarter, the ex factory price of industrial producers increased by 8.7% over the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers increased by 11.3%.
4. According to the central bank’s website, in March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 395.1 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 249.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. In March, the scale of social financing increased by 4.65 trillion yuan, 1.28 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.
institutional views
For the current market, Rongwei Securities said that the three major stock indexes were adjusted across the board, and the gem index hit a new low since the adjustment. More than 4000 stocks on the disk fell, and the panic atmosphere reappeared. After the panic decline in January and March, the emotional bottom and market bottom have been established. At present, it is to create the trend of market bottom. In terms of operation, control the position and select the varieties with excellent performance and high growth.
Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) believes that the current market is facing a triple risk and opportunity. One risk: the divergence of monetary policies between China and the United States has led to a significant narrowing of the interest rate gap between the two countries, which has continued to narrow rapidly to close to 0 in the near future, which has also triggered concerns about capital outflows in the recent market. However, in the context of the rapid rise of US bond interest rates recently, the phenomenon of capital outflow has not intensified. This may be mainly due to the fact that the real interest rate difference between the two countries is still in a high position, and the RMB assets are still relatively attractive to the US dollar. It can also be seen from the recent small rather than large fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate that the narrowing of the interest rate difference may not cause a large outflow of funds.
Triple opportunities: high prosperity, anti inflation and steady growth. (1) Look for the main line of high prosperity from the first quarter report, mainly including emerging industries related to price rise and high prosperity, and some consumer segments; (2) Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price rise gives birth to multiple opportunities, including chemical fertilizer, efficiency improved seed industry and agricultural machinery, livestock and poultry breeding and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) production and traders; (3) Steady growth superimposes undervalued value, and the real estate chain shows a diffusion trend. Looking forward to the future, banks, steel, architectural decoration, mining, non bank finance, household appliances, real estate, chemical industry and other sectors that benefit from steady growth and undervalued value are still or are expected to obtain excess returns, and construction machinery and other sectors related to steady growth may also deserve special attention.
In addition, Aijian Securities pointed out that the market environment has also changed repeatedly in the short term, but the positive trend has not changed, so it is more patient to wait at this time. China’s epidemic has increased the pressure on the economy, but it has also strengthened the expectation of monetary policy, and the expectation of future liquidity is better. It plays a strong role in supporting the market in the short term, which is conducive to easing the pressure on performance. The market is expected to maintain the shock recovery pattern, with a small range, change space with time, and the game characteristics of stock funds remain unchanged. It is still to grasp structural trading opportunities. The main opportunity lies in the valuation repair after excessive pessimistic expectations in the early stage.
Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that the performance of the first quarter was coming, the micro liquidity margin was repaired, the risk appetite remained neutral, and the shock trend continued in the short term. (1) The release of economic data in the first quarter may suppress profit expectations; With the advent of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report, the profitability of petroleum and petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, steel, coal, basic chemical industry and other industries is expected to improve greatly. (2) The minutes of the Fed meeting are partial to Eagle, but China’s macro liquidity remains relatively loose; Foreign capital has flowed out recently, and new development funds and emotional funds may improve marginally. (3) Risk appetite is still suppressed by overseas austerity, geopolitical conflicts and epidemics, and the growth protection policy continues to boost sentiment.
What other boom has not been fully priced Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) mentioned the capital expenditure direction of Q1 high boom + annual report performance inflection point + strong cash flow sector. 1) The macro data from January to February shows that the prosperity of resource products, exports and high-tech industries is strong. The meso Huatai strategic prosperity index shows that the prosperity of Xudian, photovoltaic, digital infrastructure and CXO is upward, and the micro performance adjustment trend reflects the prosperity of resource products, but the prosperity of electricity, photovoltaic, medical services and bank Q1 is expected to exceed expectations: the common direction of the above logic sedans is energy central gold + grade power + photovoltaic + CXO + banks, of which banks and CXO may not be fully priced And the impact of the epidemic is relatively small; 2) The inflection point of the annual report is the current or adjacent buildings, agriculture, food and beverage that are relatively less affected by the epidemic; 3) Where the subsequent strong demand is located depends on who has the best cash flow and where the money will be used: the cash flow of central energy enterprises is the best. The demand for steady growth drives the expansion of their capital expenditure and drives the expansion of green power / solid waste treatment / renewable metal demand.
