Consumer sector: the overall boom is down, focusing on medicine and biology
The overall prosperity of the consumer sector declined. The first batch price of Maotai and the price of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) 52 degrees fell month on month, the price of milk and fresh milk fell month on month, and the retail price of foreign infant milk powder rose month on month; The price index of traditional Chinese medicine rose month on month, the prices of vitamins A, C and E did not fluctuate, the price of lysine rose month on month, and the price of methionine fell month on month; The retail sales and wholesale sales of passenger cars continued to fall; MDI spot price rose month on month, while TDI spot price fell month on month; Pork prices fell month on month, broiler seedling prices surged month on month, soybean meal prices fell significantly, and Shouguang vegetable index and key monitored fruit prices rose month on month; Yiwu commodity price index fell slightly; The Shanghai copper index and Shanghai aluminum index fell month on month, the plastic index rose slightly, and the steel price index rose month on month.
Growth sector: the boom continues to differentiate, focusing on new energy vehicles
The prosperity of the growth sector continues to differentiate. In electronics, the fee and a half index fluctuated and fell in the past two weeks, and the price of NAND flash memory fluctuated. In terms of communication, from January to February 2022, the overall operation of the communication industry was better, the growth rate of telecom business income increased, the total amount of telecom business maintained growth, the construction of fixed broadband network was accelerated, and the construction of 5g base station was steadily promoted. In terms of electrical equipment, from January to February 2022, the completed investment in power grid capital construction increased year-on-year, and the power consumption of the whole society increased slightly year-on-year. In the past two weeks, the price of silicon materials fell slightly and the price of photovoltaic industry chain rose slightly. In terms of lithium battery materials, lithium fluorophosphate continued to decline in recent two Saturdays, the decline of DMC slowed down, and the high price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable at 168000 yuan / ton. In terms of media, the cold winter of film and television continues to spread. The first place in the global mobile game revenue ranking of Q1 in 2022 is still Tencent’s King glory. In terms of new energy vehicles, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February 2022 far exceeded that of the same period in previous years, and the sales volume of EV and PHEV increased rapidly year-on-year. The price rise in March did not have a significant impact on the sales volume of the month, and the ownership of charging piles continued to rise.
Large financial sector: the overall recovery of the economy, focusing on real estate and banks
The overall financial boom picked up. In terms of real estate, the interest rate of the first house loan in 103 mainstream cities in China monitored in March 2022 was 5.34%, down 13 basis points from February, and the interest rate of the second house loan was 5.60%, down 15 basis points from February. The land purchase area remained low year-on-year, and the willingness to acquire land was still low. In terms of banks, the social finance and credit data showed a slight decline in February. In February 2022, the stock growth rate of social financing scale was 10.2%, which was mainly affected by the weak loan demand of the real economy. The short-term interest rate has dropped, the long-term interest rate has decreased slightly, and the capital side has remained relatively loose. The premium income of non bank decreased slightly in February 2022. The balance of margin trading and securities lending continued to decline, the stock turnover rate increased, and the trading sentiment warmed up.
Cycle sector: Boom differentiation, focusing on steel and coal
The boom of the cyclical sector is divided. As of April 6, 2022, the commodity price index fluctuated slightly. In terms of coal by industry, the futures price trend of main coal types began to differentiate, and the month on month increase of port coal inventory level narrowed; In terms of steel, China’s iron ore and steel prices rose, the inventory level of rebar and wire rod decreased, and the steel output and capacity utilization increased significantly; In terms of international energy, the prices of crude oil and natural gas continued to fall, the number of crude oil drilling rigs in the United States increased slightly, and the commercial crude oil inventory decreased slightly; In terms of non-ferrous metals, the price trend of non-ferrous metals was divided, and the prices of gold and silver fell slightly; In terms of energy metals, the price of lithium ore remained stable and the price of cobalt decreased slightly; In terms of chemicals, the chemical commodity index has decreased slightly in the past two weeks, the price fluctuation of polyester and PTA in chemicals is small, the price of PVC and polymerized MDI has increased slightly, the price of urea has decreased slightly, and the price of chemical fertilizer raw materials has been divided; In terms of building materials, the cement price index has operated smoothly in the past two weeks, the market price of float flat glass has fallen slightly, and the China bond local government bond index has remained stable; In terms of shipping, China’s and international dry bulk index fell in the past two weeks, and China’s export container freight rate index corrected.
Risk tip: the prosperity index of some industries fails to fully describe the prosperity of the industry, the economy changes too fast, resulting in the lag of the prosperity index, the deviation of the understanding of the industry prosperity, the recurrence of covid-19 epidemic, etc
