Investment advice
In 21q4, the position scale of foreign and Chinese stocks decreased, and Hong Kong stocks remained the main allocation channel. By the end of the 21st century, the total market value of Chinese shares held by top20 key overseas funds was US $432.7 billion, down 10.6% month on month compared with 21q3, but the decline narrowed. The total market value of US stocks / Hong Kong stocks / A shares accounted for 19.1% / 66.6% / 11.2%. With the tightening of supervision and the expectation of US interest rate hike hitting foreign capital’s risk preference for emerging markets, the market value of Chinese shares listed in US stocks fell by 4.5pct, and the Hong Kong stock market remains the main channel for foreign capital to allocate Chinese shares.
Foreign investment positions in most sectors have declined, and compulsory consumption has been favored. In terms of industry allocation, foreign capital prefers large consumption, communication, finance and medicine, of which large consumption 21q4 accounts for 40.1%. In most industries, the market share of the market is declining, and the consumption of Baijiu, which is the representative of liquor, has been favored. The quarterly position of the company has increased by 17.2% to 23 billion 290 million US dollars, and the allocation proportion has increased by 1.3pct to 5.4%.
Heavy positions of Chinese stocks are dominated by large consumption, and the Internet leader is expected to differentiate. The number of large consumption targets in the top 30 heavy position stocks of 21q4 key overseas funds accounted for 50%, and the market value of positions accounted for 68%. The market value of positions held by Internet leaders Tencent holdings, Alibaba and meituan reached US $85.19 billion / US $50.88 billion / US $25.27 billion respectively, ranking among the top three heavyweight stocks. However, differentiation is expected within the industry. The market value of foreign positions of Alibaba and pinduoduo is – 29.5% and – 40.5% quarter on quarter respectively; While Tencent holdings, jd.com and meituan are only – 5.2%, – 6.5%, – 1.4%; Netease bucked the trend and achieved 27.7% growth.
Market Review
Rise and fall: the primary industry of large consumption generally fell after a slight rebound last week. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 4.7%), media (- 4.2%) and beauty care (- 3.5%) led the decline.
Turnover: the overall average daily turnover of large consumer industries was 146.35 billion yuan, down 3.0% on a weekly basis, accounting for 15.6% of the overall daily turnover of a shares.
Capital flow
A-share liquidity tracking: net capital outflow expanded. Equity financing – 19.61 billion yuan; Shareholders’ reduction of – 640 million yuan; New development fund +3.06 billion yuan; Financing capital + 2.39 billion yuan; The capital of land port link was -6.59 billion yuan.
Main capital flow: most industries are in a net outflow state, and the net outflow amount of main capital in light industry manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and media industries is large Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (household appliances), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (Commerce and retail), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (food and beverage) ranked first in the net inflow of main funds.
Northward capital flow: most of the northward capital flows of various industries are in the state of net outflow, and the northward net capital flows of food and beverage, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries rank first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), betani (beauty care) and Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) (commercial retail) rank among the top in the amount of net capital inflow to the north.
Southward capital flow: last week, the net southward capital flow of textile and garment, household appliances and media industries ranked first. Paopaomate (light industry manufacturing), Tianli Education (social services) and Youran animal husbandry (food and beverage) rank first in the amount of net capital inflow to the south
Transaction dynamics
Market sentiment: financing transactions accounted for 6.70% (6.51% last week); The seller’s recommendation index was 260.6, which remained high; The turnover rate of Shanghai stock market was 0.9% (0.9% last week), and that of Shenzhen stock market was 2.3% (2.2% last week).
Hot topics: duty free shops, gold jewelry, travel trips, Baijiu, light industry.
Risk tips
The risk of continuous recurrence of the epidemic, the risk of external shocks and the risk of market fluctuations.
