Investment summary:
A shares fluctuated in a narrow range during the trading hours of this Wednesday, and most stock indexes fell. All three major indexes closed down, with the Shanghai index down 0.5%, the Shenzhen component index down 2.5% and the gem index down 4.7%. During the week, the vast majority of indexes were green, and the top ones were dividend index, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, China Stock Exchange 100 and Shanghai Stock Exchange 180. The indexes with poor performance during the week were Chuang Chuang growth, gem composite, Kechuang entrepreneurship 50, gem index and so on.
Only a few industries recorded a red market, and most sectors ended lower. Among them, real estate, building materials, building decoration, steel and other sectors led the increase. The electronics, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors performed poorly. From the perspective of capital inflows, most sectors realized net capital inflows this week, and real estate, building decoration, building materials and other industries mainly showed inflows. The outflows are power equipment, electronics, national defense and military industry.
Overseas observation: the radical hawks of the Federal Reserve hang upside down the high rise curve of US bond yields
According to the minutes of FOMC meeting in March, it is expected that the target range of the federal funds rate may need to be raised once or several times in the future. In addition, Fed officials discussed the plan of how to reduce the balance sheet at the March meeting. The minutes of the meeting showed that in the process of reducing the balance sheet, the monthly holdings of US Treasury bonds and institutional MBs were reduced by about US $60 billion and US $35 billion, totaling US $95 billion. The reduction plan may be implemented as early as may, and the reduction plan may last more than three months.
As an effective tool for the Federal Reserve to optimize the yield curve, the table contraction will soon play a role. The reduction and expansion of the Fed's table are completed by buying and selling US bonds. During the reduction, the Fed sells long-term US bonds, tightens liquidity and increases the term premium through the expected effect, so as to effectively promote the rise of long-term interest rates, so as to promote the steepening of the yield curve and alleviate the upside down trend of US bond yield.
The interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed to 3bp. Although China's policy is "self oriented", too fast narrowing of the interest rate gap may limit the operating space of China's monetary instruments, and the fiscal side may become the direction of policy development.
Policy trend: steady growth and economic policy
NPC: put steady growth in a more prominent position
The national Standing Committee proposed to make overall plans to stabilize growth, adjust structure and promote reform, so as to effectively stabilize the macro-economic market; Deploy and timely use monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy.
The people's Bank of China will provide 60% and 100% of the loan principal with refinancing support. Promote the rapid growth of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, accelerate the transformation from old infrastructure to new infrastructure, and ensure that the manufacturing industry will become the main force of China's steady economic growth this year.
Symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on economic situation: stabilizing the economic fundamentals
Policies and measures should be strengthened in advance and timely. Those that have been issued should be implemented in place as soon as possible, and those to be launched should be made clear as early as possible. At the same time, new plans should be studied and prepared.
CBRC: further strengthen financial support for small and micro enterprises
Focusing on the strategic tasks of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", we will strengthen and deepen financial services for small and micro enterprises, support the rescue, recovery and high-quality development of small and micro enterprises, and stabilize the overall macroeconomic market. Steadily increase the credit supply of the banking industry to small and micro enterprises, optimize the credit structure, and promote the reasonable reduction of comprehensive financing costs.
Macroeconomic data:
China: China's foreign exchange reserves fell 0.8% month on month in March.
Internationally, the PMI of non manufacturing industry in the United States in March was 58.3, higher than the critical value, with a month on month increase of 3.2%; New orders for durable goods increased by 2% month on month; In February, the EU PPI increased by 31.1% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 30.4%; Oklahoma Cushing crude oil inventory reported 25887000 barrels, up 6.8% month on month; On April 1, the US natural gas inventory was 13.82 billion cubic feet, down 2.3% month on month.
Investment suggestion: under the severe epidemic situation, steady growth is still the main line of policy and market. At present, the pulling effect of infrastructure construction has been realized, while the real estate data has not improved, and the real estate policy is expected to be further loosened. With the rapid rise of overseas returns, the growth style of the equity market may still be under pressure, and the value style is more cost-effective. Future opportunities focus on the structural opportunities of the banking sector benefiting from steady growth, the real estate sector catalyzed by policies, and the pharmaceutical and biological sector catalyzed by the epidemic. In addition, pay attention to the investment opportunities of top enterprises in the industry at the bottom of the pig cycle.
Risk warning: the spread of covid-19 pneumonia is higher than expected, the landing of steady growth policy is lower than expected, and the tightening of overseas monetary policy is too fast
