Iron and steel: affected by the epidemic, the demand for iron and steel continues to be depressed, and the weekly scale needs to expand the year-on-year decline to about 20%. If the impact of the epidemic continues for another period of time, the steel inventory pressure of steel enterprises and intermediate links may gradually appear. Although the steel price is still at a high level, the profit level per ton of steel has shrunk to a low level in recent five years, reflecting that the supply and demand environment of smelting links has significantly deteriorated. We should pay attention to when the contraction of steel profit will be transmitted to the upstream. In the medium term, the short cycle adjustment of real estate since the second quarter of last year remains to be completed.
Coal: high performance, outstanding allocation value. Coal price: the price of power coal is weak in the off-season, and the price of coking coal and coke is strong. In terms of thermal coal, coal prices fell slightly this week. On the supply side, the output of some areas in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia is limited due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, while coal mine shipments are generally affected by policies and epidemic situations; In addition, the purchase price of large groups has been reduced, and the coal price at the pit mouth has been reduced to a certain extent. At present, it is mainly long-term cooperative transportation. On the demand side, the heating in the north is over, the impact of the epidemic is superimposed in the traditional off-season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. We will continue to pay attention to policy changes and the impact of the epidemic in the follow-up. In terms of coking coal and coke, prices continued to be strong. On the supply side, the recent epidemic situation in Shanxi has been repeated, and some production and shipment have been affected; In terms of importing Mongolian coal, Ganqi Maodu port cleared customs on the 3rd of this week, with an average of 209 vehicles per day, an increase of 15 vehicles per week and a rise in short-term freight and coal prices; On the demand side, the downstream procurement is active, but the arrival is poor under the influence of the epidemic. The coke coal in the plant is passively reduced, and there may be passive production restriction. At the same time, the shipment of coke enterprises is blocked, and the coke has a certain accumulation of coke. The production of steel mills has gradually resumed, the coke inventory is low, and the demand for replenishment is strong. Most coke enterprises have increased in the fifth round, driven by the demand, there are many bullish in the future. Investment suggestion: high performance, increased cash and prominent allocation value. Under the influence of policy pressure and falling demand in the off-season, the coal price has a seasonal correction, but this does not change the long-term high boom trend of the industry; Coal enterprises have successively released annual reports and forecasts of the first quarter report. The performance growth rate is generally fast, and most of them have exceeded expectations; Leading companies paid a high proportion of dividends, boosted market sentiment and continued to be optimistic about the future market. It is suggested to focus on the target: power coal company Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) ; Coking coal company Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) .
Nonferrous Metals: high inflation in the United States supports gold prices, and the Chinese epidemic has impacted downstream demand. 1) Fed minutes showed a bias towards hawks, while inflation remained high, supporting gold prices. Within the week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its meeting in March, which showed that it was biased towards eagle, believing that the Federal Reserve thought it might be appropriate to reduce the asset ceiling of $95 billion per month, and this process could be started as early as may. In addition, the real interest rate of US bonds continued to rise, giving upward resistance to the price of precious metals; However, inflation expectations are still high, the market expects that the tightening policy lags behind inflation, and it is difficult for the real interest rate to outperform inflation, which forms support for the price of gold. As of April 8, Comex gold closed at US $1945.6/oz, up 1.14% month on month; COMEX silver closed at US $24.823/oz, up 0.69% month on month; SHFE gold closed at 396.04 yuan / g, down 0.06% month on month; SHFE silver closed at 5030 yuan / kg, down 0.16% month on month. 2) Base metals, the epidemic continues to impact China’s downstream demand. During the week, the Fed released the minutes of its meeting in March, which showed that it was biased towards hawks, tightening expectations continued to strengthen, and the US dollar index rose, putting pressure on the price of base metals; China’s epidemic continues to impact downstream demand. The national Standing Committee reiterated the timely use of monetary policy tools to support the development of the real economy, and the steady growth policy is expected to be strengthened. Under the background of strong demand for steady growth, the national Standing Committee explained that the connotation of maintaining economic operation in a reasonable range lies in the stability of employment and prices; In terms of policy, external tightening and internal delivery are differentiated. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by 0.7%, – 2.0%, 0.0%, – 0.8%, – 1.1% and 0.0% respectively this week. The overall price fell
Building materials: at the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of building materials & new materials investment. First, the prosperity and performance fulfillment are selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, cement and water reducing agent are selected for the main line of steady growth; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, with the support of cost, the industry basically has no downside risk; Float glass prices stabilized and rebounded while demand boosted. 1) In the field of new materials, the “limited overseas supply”, the explosion of demand in new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber, and China’s leading “grinding a sword in ten years”; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field; And we believe that the business continuity in the field of small and medium-sized tow is high. Zhongfu Shenying, a carbon fiber leader, was listed on the stock market on April 6. It is suggested to focus on it (see Zhongfu Shenying: high-performance carbon fiber leader, “Shenying” opens a new chapter of “1-N” development) and other targets of the carbon fiber industry chain, such as Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) etc. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand. 2) The layout of brand building materials is at the right time. Since the second half of the year, the valuation and performance of brand building materials have been killed under weak demand + capital pressure + high cost. In the absence of significant improvement in real estate fundamentals, the policy continued to relax expectations, the credit risk faced by the real estate chain and the pessimistic expectation of market demand were repaired, and the sector rebounded as a whole. According to the historical resumption, the end of the general real estate policy corresponds to the end of the valuation of brand building materials. The end of this round of policy / valuation appears in 21q4. We expect the end of fundamentals to appear in 22q1. On the cost side, the reserves of raw materials with leading low price can generally cover 22q1, and the recent easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine or the reduction of oil price can focus on the subdivision track with high correlation between cost and oil price. 3) The cost performance of cement allocation is high. The infrastructure development force and the marginal recovery of real estate under steady growth are expected to support the cement demand to maintain a high platform. However, the further coordination and optimization of cement core logic at the supply side in 22 years has generally strengthened the scope and intensity of peak staggering this year than last year, superimposing the high price center to maintain profitability and toughness. 4) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 5) The price of photovoltaic glass continues to rise due to the transmission of cost pressure. We believe that there is still price elasticity at the bottom of the industry cycle. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the field of photovoltaic glass; The price of float glass fell slightly, and the price is expected to stabilize and recover with the gradual recovery of demand. 6) The glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile and other strong support for demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, and the current safety margin is high.
Chemical industry: the crude oil price has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has recovered, and the oil service industry has fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) ; Due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors, the vulnerability of the global oil and gas supply chain appears. It is suggested to pay attention to the cursor of oil and gas: CNOOC, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) ; The oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the coal and gas head route highlights the cost advantage: Satellite chemistry, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Leading enterprises expand their advantages, while the valuation is obviously low, or realize through the cycle. It is suggested to focus on leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives in the business cycle Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) . New materials: scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. Policy price limit risk; Coal import volume; The macro economy has fallen sharply. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Macroeconomic downside risks; The epidemic has led to lower than expected demand; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
