Capital concerns next week:
The main factors that need to be paid attention to in the capital aspect next week (April 11-april 15) are:
(1) the maturity of reverse repo is 40 billion, MLF is 150 billion and Treasury deposit is 70 billion. Pay attention to how the central bank hedges the liquidity gap;
(2) the net payment of government bonds was 36.9 billion yuan, which was higher than the net payment of government bonds of 25.6 billion yuan this week (April 6 to April 8);
(3) the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit was 593.9 billion yuan, which was higher than that of interbank certificates of deposit this week by 298.8 billion yuan.
Open market situation this week and next week
This week (from April 6 to April 8), the central bank made a total net withdrawal of 580 billion, of which the 7-day reverse repo was 30 billion and the maturity was 610 billion. Next week (from April 11 to April 15), the maturity of 7-day reverse repo will total 40 billion, MLF will be 150 billion and Treasury deposit will be 70 billion.
Changes in money market interest rates this week
This week (from April 6 to April 8), money market interest rates generally fell: dr001 fell 9.29bp to 1.74%, dr007 interest rate fell 3.36bp to 1.94%, R001 fell 10.14bp to 1.79%, R007 fell 16.29bp to 2.01%, gc001 fell 34.10bp to 1.94%, gc007 fell 21.20bp to 2.04%. The 1-month CD interest rate (stock bank) decreased by 2.50bp to 2.10%, the 3-month CD interest rate (stock bank) decreased by 10bp to 2.20%, the 6-month CD interest rate (stock bank) increased by 3.70bp to 2.41%, and the 1-year CD interest rate (stock bank) decreased by 1.87bp to 2.49%.
The average daily trading volume of inter-bank pledged repo this week was 5140.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1602.2 billion yuan over last week. Among them, the average daily trading volume of R001 was 4320.7 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 84.1%, and the average daily trading volume of R007 was 652.7 billion yuan, accounting for an average of 12.6%. This week, the average daily trading volume of the repurchase of new pledged treasury bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 1586.5 billion yuan, an increase of 10.4 billion yuan over last week, of which the trading volume of gc001 was 1237.9 billion yuan, accounting for 78.9%, and the trading volume of gc007 was 241.2 billion yuan, accounting for 14.6%.
Weekly tracking of interbank certificates of deposit
This week, major interbank certificates of deposit issued 186.24 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.65 billion yuan. Compared with last week (major banks issued 299.47 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 40.56 billion yuan), the issuance scale and net financing amount decreased compared with last week. According to the main body, the issuance and net financing scale of certificates of deposit of urban commercial banks were the highest this week, accounting for 55% respectively. In terms of installment limit, the issuance and net financing scale of one-year certificates of deposit this week is the highest, accounting for 37%. In terms of the issuance success rate, the state-owned bank, AA class and 1y phase had the highest issuance success rate this week, 100%, 89% and 81% respectively.
Interbank certificate of deposit interest rates generally fell this week, and different subjects and term interest rates were differentiated. The interest rates of urban commercial banks, six-month certificates of deposit and AA certificates of deposit decreased the most, with 3.02bp, 4.16bp and 6BP respectively. This week, the interest margin between rural commercial banks and joint-stock banks expanded the most, with 1y-6m interest margin expanding by more than 50%. In addition, the interest margin between the one-year deposit certificate of the stock bank and the one-year MLF, 10-year Treasury bond, R007 and R001 increased by 1.87bp, 1.12bp, 14.42bp and 8.27bp respectively.
Risk warning: policy uncertainty; Economic fundamentals exceeded expectations.
