Market performance:
In the current period (2022.4.4-2022.4.8), the non bank (Shenwan) index was – 0.25%, ranking 9 / 31 in the industry, the brokerage II index was – 0.43%, and the insurance II index was + 0.52%;
The Shenzhen composite index was – 94.3%, and the Shanghai composite index was – 20.2%. The top five stocks in terms of rise and fall: ST Lvting (+ 15.38%), ST easy to see (+ 13.51%), Guosheng Financial Holding Inc(002670) (+ 9.57%), Chinalin Securities Co.Ltd(002945) (+ 6.64%), ST Baode (+ 3.05%);
Stocks ranked among the top five in terms of rise and fall: Anhui Xinli Finance Co.Ltd(600318) (- 27.09%), Kunwu Jiuding Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600053) (- 11.77%), Jingwei Textile Machinery Company Limited(000666) (- 9.72%), St Xiyuan (- 7.62%), Gi Technologies Group Co.Ltd(300309) (- 7.28%).
Core view
Brokerage:
On April 9, Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, attended the third member congress of the association of listed companies and delivered a speech on the theme of high-quality development of listed companies. In recent years, the scale of Chinese listed companies has developed rapidly. By the end of March this year, there were 4782 domestic listed companies with a total market value of 80.7 trillion yuan, ranking the second in the world; The number and market value of listed companies increased by 33.4% and 85.3% respectively compared with the end of 2018. The capital market has achieved remarkable results in serving the real economy. In terms of financing, since 2018, listed companies have refinanced a total of 3.1 trillion yuan, nearly 10000 mergers and acquisitions, with a transaction amount of 5.5 trillion yuan, and bond financing in the exchange market of 3.5 trillion yuan. At the same time, the scientific research investment of listed companies increased significantly, and the number of patents increased by 74%, effectively improving the competitiveness of entity enterprises. At the same time, the structure of listed companies has been continuously optimized. The number of listed companies on the science and innovation board and the gem has exceeded 400 and 1100 respectively. There are nearly 2200 listed companies in A-share strategic emerging industries, an increase of about 900 compared with three years ago. The market value of hard technology enterprises has increased from 22.2% to 31.8%. The core driving force of China’s economy is gradually transforming to high-tech industries with high added value. On the other hand, the supervision of listed companies has been continuously strengthened, the governance has been more standardized, the stock pledge has been effectively cleared, and the crackdown on violations of laws and regulations has been continuously increased. Since 2018, 232 listed companies have been transferred for inspection and filing, an increase of 82.7% compared with the previous three years; A total of 77 companies were delisted, six times that of the previous three years, and the delisting system in the capital market was gradually improved. Based on the gradual establishment and improvement of market system and configuration, the scale of listed companies is expanding, and their attraction to investors is increasing. The number of investors in China’s securities market has exceeded the 200 million mark, and the proportion of domestic professional institutional investors and foreign investors in circulating shares has increased from 17.6% three years ago to 24.3%. Finally, Yi Huiman puts forward the main development of the future capital market and focuses on improving the “five abilities”: consolidating governance ability, enhancing competitiveness, improving innovation ability, improving anti risk ability and improving return ability.
This week, the brokerage sector fell by 0.43% in total. At present, the valuation of the brokerage is 1.44 times Pb, which is below the 20 quantile since 2016, which is seriously deviated from the performance of the brokerage. At present, the market still lacks confidence under the influence of external shocks such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Fed’s interest rate hike, and adverse factors such as repeated outbreaks in the process of economic downturn. In the long run, the wealth management, asset management and capital intermediary businesses of securities companies have high growth, which is conducive to raising the valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading securities companies and securities companies with successful wealth management transformation, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , etc.
The insurance sector rose 0.52% this week. At present, the insurance valuation is 1.17 times, below the 10th percentile since 2016. The valuation is at the bottom and the callback space is limited. However, combined with the performance released by the insurance company and the premium data in February, the life insurance is still at the bottom stage, and the overall pressure on the liability side has not fundamentally changed. The bottoming stage is still not over, and the inflection point needs to wait. It is suggested to pay attention to the structural market and long-term investment value.
At the policy level, on April 6, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission asked insurance institutions to improve the level of agricultural insurance protection, and expand the supply of life insurance products such as accidental injury insurance and endowment insurance according to the needs of rural residents, especially the people in poverty-stricken areas. At present, the transformation of life insurance is still subject to the shrinkage of the staff and the pressure on the liability side, and the favorable policies have little stimulation on life insurance. However, based on the trend of China’s aging and the gradual improvement of the pension system, in the transformation of superimposed wealth management, high net worth customers are expected to highlight the value of pension insurance and life insurance business.
On the other hand, on April 8, the general office of the CBRC issued the notice on further strengthening financial support for the development of small and micro enterprises in 2022. The notice requires to strengthen science and technology insurance services, further promote the first major technical equipment insurance pilot and the first batch of application insurance pilot of new materials, and enrich the varieties of intellectual property insurance business. The capital market continues to increase its support for science and technology and specialized special new small and medium-sized enterprises. With the increase of high-tech value-added listed enterprises, the market demand for financing and supporting insurance services is expected to further increase. Under the influence of the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, property insurance is expected to take the lead in recovering.
Risk tips: major changes in industry rules, increased external market risks, market fluctuations and repeated epidemics
