Industry tracking (2022.4.2-2022.4.8)
Central stability signal releases positive policy expectation
Since February 2022, under the background of accelerated downward fundamentals, the policies on both sides of supply and demand have been loosened frequently, and the favorable policies on the credit side and the capital side of real estate enterprises have restrained the spread of market panic. At the beginning of March, the government work report once again mentioned “three stabilities” and “implementing policies based on the city”, while the special meeting of the mid month financial committee also emphasized the need to “stabilize growth” and carefully return to Taiwan’s contractionary policies. The relevant statements can be seen as a signal of policy stability released by the central level, so that the pessimistic expectations of the market can be effectively corrected.
Demand improvement depends on the breadth and depth of policies
Combing the deregulation path of the current round of demand policies in various regions, we can find that the policy relief objects gradually go deep from the third and fourth tier cities to the weak second tier provincial capitals, and the regulation is gradually increasing, evolving from house purchase subsidies and provident fund loan preferences to the relaxation of sales and loan restrictions. From the perspective of the breadth of policy promotion, it is of signal significance for individual cities to take the lead in breaking the past restrictive boundary, which is an important prerequisite for improving the overall demand expectation of the market, and has received a positive response from third and fourth tier cities. However, from the perspective of promotion depth, the follow-up of second tier cities is slightly insufficient, and the sales data also reflects that the loosening of purchase and loan restrictions in low-level cities alone can not fundamentally reverse the market’s concern about fundamental stall. We believe that the demand for improvement in the current adjustment is still relatively limited, and that stimulating demand warming needs a richer and more sound policy toolbox.
The supply side urgently needs the substantive implementation of policy boots
Recently, some urban land policies have been loosened compared with 2021. Nanjing, Jinhua, Suzhou, Jinan and other cities have made adjustments to the first batch of land auction rules in 2022, including reducing the proportion of bidding deposit and canceling the restriction on the number of registered plots. Meanwhile, since the introduction of the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds in February, Lanzhou, Xiamen, Suzhou, Mianyang and other places have optimized the pre-sale supervision conditions, such as applying for the pre-sale time node in advance, improving the efficiency of fund allocation, reducing the image and progress requirements of pre-sale license, etc. However, on the whole, the participants are still limited to a small number of cities. Under the guidance of “urban policy implementation”, the market response caused by the marginal relaxation of supply side policies lags behind. It is expected that the investment confidence of developers will be difficult to recover before the implementation of national substantive policies and supporting measures.
Under the high base, transactions in new houses, second-hand houses and land markets are weak this week
The turnover of the new housing market this week was 2.75 million square meters, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 58.05%, a decrease of 14.79 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 143530000 square meters, the second-line de urbanization accelerated, the first-line de urbanization slowed down, and the speed of the third line and below was the same. The second-hand housing market traded 980000 square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 41.40%, down 8.43 PCT compared with the previous month. The turnover of land was – 38000 this week, with a year-on-year rolling market of – 36000 this week; The total turnover was 42 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 60.71%; The national average premium rate was + 1.00%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -12.94pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was + 1.64%, down 9.18pct from last week, ranking 5 / 31 higher, leading the CSI 300 index by 2.70pct. In terms of H shares, the wind Hong Kong real estate index this week was + 5.71%, up 3.64pct from last week, ranking 1 / 11 higher, leading the Hang Seng Index by 6.47pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was 10.65%, up 7.16pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
