Key investment points
Thinking this week: investment direction from hospital performance appraisal
Event: on April 2, 2022, the National Health Commission released the latest version of the operation manual for performance appraisal of national level III public hospitals (2022 Edition). We note that rational drug use, revenue and expenditure structure and cost control are still the key contents of performance appraisal, and the biggest difference between this revision and the previous revision is that: ① the income proportion of 18 kinds of medical consumables is included in the performance appraisal index for the first time. ② The income from bulk Chinese medicine decoction pieces, small packaged Chinese medicine decoction pieces, Chinese medicine formula granules, Chinese medicine preparations of medical institutions and drugs for rare diseases, the income from drugs generated by long-term prescriptions, and the negotiation drugs included in the national medical insurance catalogue will not be limited by the assessment of the annual overall growth of medical expenses.
We believe that:
① the importance of "innovation + going to sea" is highlighted again. The list of 18 kinds of medical consumables mainly involves key products such as orthopedics, cardiovascular intervention and plastic surgery. The use of corresponding devices in the list may be less due to performance evaluation, and the product market space will be further reduced. In the context of the expansion of China's centralized mining and the pressure of fee control, we once again emphasize the stock selection idea of "innovation + going to sea", and focus on enterprises that can continuously expand new fields and continuously iterate new products and have a smooth overseas layout (such as establishing overseas sales channels, obtaining overseas certificates for products, rapidly increasing the proportion of overseas revenue, etc.). We recommend: Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) , etc. we suggest to pay attention to: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) etc.
② accelerating the improvement of the cost side of traditional Chinese medicine: under the environment of medical cost control, this performance evaluation index eliminates the cost burden of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces and other use expenses, and further strengthens the clinical willingness to give priority to the use of traditional Chinese medicine. Or it can benefit relevant enterprises such as traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces and formula particles. Recommendations: Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , etc. it is recommended to pay attention to: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.Ltd(000538) , etc.
This week's performance: covid-19 disturbance, shock differentiation
The pharmaceutical sector fell 3.66% this week, 2.59 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking the penultimate increase in all industries. In terms of turnover, the proportion of turnover this week decreased month on month. In terms of trading volume, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 354.8 billion yuan, accounting for 12.6% of the total turnover of all a shares, down 3.0% from the previous week, 4.5pct higher than the central level since 2018, and the turnover is still at a historically high level. From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector this week (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 28.2 times, down 1.3pct month on month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 140%, down 9.7pct from the previous week, significantly lower than the central level in the past four years (182.3%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, the pharmaceutical sub sections generally fell this week, with obvious declines in chemical raw materials (- 6.2%), pharmaceutical circulation (- 4.9%) and biomedicine (- 4.2%).
According to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, pharmaceutical business, R & D and innovative pharmaceutical enterprises, pharmaceutical services and characteristic API enterprises decreased significantly this week, down 6.7%, 6.6%, 5.6% and 5.6% respectively; Looking at the performance of individual stocks, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) (- 13.0%), Realcan Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002589) (- 10.8%) and Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) (- 7.7%) fell significantly in the pharmaceutical business sector; Among the R & D innovative pharmaceutical enterprises, Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) (- 8.3%), Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) (- 7.7%) and Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) (- 7.6%) decreased significantly; In the pharmaceutical services sector, Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) (- 10.5%), Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) (- 10.3%) and Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) (- 9.9%) decreased significantly; Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) (- 15.3%), Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) (- 9.8%) and Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) (- 8.2%) in the API sector decreased significantly. It is worth noting that Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) contrarian growth was more prominent (14.9%). We speculate that it may be related to the valuation repair after the company's short-term significant adjustment; At the same time, we especially emphasize the obvious volatility of covid-19 specific drug theme investment this week, and the obvious correction of companies with more rise in the early stage this week, which reflects the characteristics of theme investment in the absence of main line in the market at present. In addition, since the short-term performance growth may constitute a catalyst after entering the intensive disclosure period of the annual report in April, we continue to be optimistic about the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector and consumption attribute sector with relatively high growth in 2022q1 and clear medium and long-term industrial upgrading logic, such as CXO, API, pharmaceutical upstream, consumption (vaccine / traditional Chinese Medicine) and other companies.
Pharmaceutical manufacturing investment strategy in 2022
We suggest that investors should break the "core assets" and "sector concept" so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of "grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation". Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, recommended Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , etc.
2) upstream: the upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and other fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables. The upstream: the upstream: the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, such as pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and so on, and the recommendations are recommended in the fields of senszonzonzonzonpine international, the Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) of the Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) 35171 payattention to Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) etc.
3) innovation: equipment and pharmaceutical companies with international capabilities recommend Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medical treatment, etc., and pay attention to Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: Other: consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies; recommending Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) ' \ , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc.
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The price reduction of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected.
