Both supply and demand are weak, and the price of thermal coal falls seasonally. As of April 8, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 1270 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of supply, some areas of Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia are affected by safety and environmental protection inspection, and production is slightly limited. Shanxi Province is affected by the outbreak of the epidemic and transportation is blocked. However, the downstream was also affected by the epidemic, the overall operating rate decreased, the superimposed heating period ended, the daily consumption decreased, and the industry entered the off-season of consumption. The short-term market supply and demand are weak, and the price is weak. Looking forward to the later stage, after the epidemic is effectively controlled, the demand is expected to pick up, which is expected to drive the price of thermal coal to pick up at that time.
Coking coal prices rebounded in many places. According to the coal resources network, the weekly ratio of low sulfur in Shanxi increased by 60 yuan / ton, the weekly ratio of high sulfur in Shanxi increased by 10 yuan / ton, the weekly ratio of Lingshi fat coal increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the prices of other coals remained stable. Coking coal prices are expected to be stable and good. According to the coal resources network, affected by the epidemic in Shanxi this week, some mine workers were isolated at home, affecting production, and some mines were forced to control production due to poor transportation. In the downstream, coke and steel enterprises all need to replenish inventory, but due to poor transportation, the arrival is poor. On the whole, the price of coking coal is expected to be stable and strong in the short term.
Coke price is expected to be stable and strong. According to wind data, as of April 7, the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3600 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The market price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3280 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of ports, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3710 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, in terms of supply, the epidemic broke out at many points in Shanxi this week. Under the local epidemic prevention and control measures, it was difficult to pass and the trans provincial transportation was blocked, resulting in the passive accumulation of coke enterprises in Shanxi. At the same time, the epidemic also affected the arrival of raw coal. It does not rule out that some enterprises were forced to reduce production due to lack of raw materials. Downstream, the epidemic situation in Hebei was properly controlled and began to be gradually unsealed. The steel plant resumed production in an orderly manner at the beginning, and there was a strong demand for replenishment. Overall, the coke supply pattern is developing well, and the price is expected to be stable and strong.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Policy change risk
