Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical and biological index fell 3.33%, 2.27 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, and the rise and fall of the industry ranked 23rd. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 15.1%, 0.74 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, and the industry ranks 20th in terms of rise and fall. This week, the valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry was 28 times, with a premium rate of 93% (- 4.6pp) relative to all a shares, 47% (- 3.1pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 138% (- 7.3pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of pharmaceutical sub industry, one sub industry sector rose this week, and vaccine was the largest sub industry, with an increase of about 1.6%. Hospitals and API sub industries ranked the second and third, with an increase of about – 0.7% and – 1.8% respectively. The sub industry with the largest increase since the beginning of the year is pharmaceutical circulation, up about 3.9%.
The epidemic has repeatedly affected the market performance, and we pay attention to the uncertainty of the first quarter performance. The pharmaceutical sector fell sharply this week. We believe there are two main reasons. First, the current epidemic situation in China is still relatively severe, and there is no inflection point in the number of infected people in Shanghai, resulting in the market level’s concern that the economic recovery is less than expected; Second, the expectation of peripheral interest rate increase and table contraction led to the continuous decline of market valuation. In mid April, the pharmaceutical sector will also enter the stage of intensive disclosure of annual reports and first quarterly reports. We need to pay attention to the impact of epidemic interference on the performance of some relevant enterprises, as well as areas with relatively certain quarterly newspaper performance such as new medical infrastructure and traditional Chinese medicine. Configuration: 1) it is recommended to add large market capitalization leaders with stable performance; 2) Continue to recommend the traditional Chinese medicine sector, independent and controllable supply chain, such as the field of pharmaceutical equipment and consumables, and undervalued and growing small cap stocks.
According to our annual strategy for 2022, in the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we will focus on looking for varieties of “through medical insurance” and “epidemic desensitization”. Medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the “medical insurance border” through “continuous innovation + internationalization”; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as self funded biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables. In the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of “desensitization” of the epidemic, 1) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; 2) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; 3) The varieties of medical services that have been damaged by the previous epidemic and the recovery of demand in the future.
The steady combination of this week’week’s steady combination: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ).
The elastic combination of this week will be the elastic combination of the week: the elastic combination of the week’elastic combination of the week: ‘ Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; The implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than the expected risk; Risk of R & D failure
