Important changes in the industry this week
1. Price: the electrolyte price and BDI index are adjusted, and the prices of other links are relatively stable; 2. Terminal: in March, the sales volume of electric vehicles in the United States was 72000, and China is expected to be 470000; 3. Event: the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Jilin and other important automobile cities is under great pressure, which is expected to interfere with the production of Tesla, Volkswagen, GM and other automobile enterprises. (see the text for details)
This week's core view
Q1 ended strongly in China, the United States and Europe, with a total expected of more than 1.84 million, and the proportion of pure electricity in the European and American markets increased significantly. China: the sales volume is expected to be 470000 + in March, exceeding the market expectation. It is estimated that Q1 is more than 1.2 million, with a month on month ratio of + 157% / - 8%; Us: the sales volume in March was 207000, with a year-on-year increase of + 75%, of which bev560000, a month on month increase of + 27% and a year-on-year increase of + 69%. PHEV1. 70000, a month on month increase of + 9% and a year-on-year increase of + 33%. Q1 accumulated 186000, a year-on-year increase of + 75%; Europe: the total sales volume in March 9 was 208000, including Bev 13000 and PHEV 7 Shenzhen Sdg Information Co.Ltd(000070) 000, with a total of 458000 in Q1. The proportion of pure electricity in European and American markets has increased significantly since March.
China's epidemic has short-term interference and is expected to recover rapidly. In terms of electric vehicle sales, Shanghai is greatly affected. It is expected that the sales volume will decrease by 8K + in March, 3K + in Shenzhen and 2K + in Shandong. On the production side, Tesla is expected to lose 3W + production due to shutdown. From the insurance data last week, the sales volume decreased by 5K month on month; Other companies, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , due to the previous closed production, the impact time of the epidemic is relatively short, and the flexibility of the production end is large. It is expected to recover quickly in the short term.
Price side: in response to the rise in battery costs, the electric vehicle collective carried out the second round of price increase in March, and it is expected that the price increase will continue in April. On the whole, after this round of price increase, the demand side will gradually return to the normal level after a short decline. The oil price is still high, and the supply chain disturbance caused by the epidemic, bulk and global instability factors has led to the rise of the cost of oil vehicles and stimulated the demand for electric vehicles.
Supply side: it is expected that more than 50 heavy list models will be listed or delivered in China in 22 years. Domestic models account for more than 60%. Although the Beijing auto show has been postponed, it is expected to be held in June. However, the delivery time of new cars such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and so on has not changed. 22 models of Han and Tang dynasties have been unveiled recently, and the seals are also warming up normally. In terms of Wei Xiaoli, the delivery time of ES7, G9 and L9 is expected to remain unchanged despite the delay in the release time.
Q1, China, the United States and Europe ended strongly, and Q2 sector met the decisive battle. Looking back on Q1, factors such as the refund and supplement of electric vehicles, the soaring price of lithium carbonate, lack of core and epidemic situation continue to haunt the market. The market has always been worried about the demand and sales volume of electric vehicles, but the whole Q1 electric vehicles are full of toughness, and the response of terminal sales volume has always exceeded expectations. Since the terminal sales volume of Q2 reflects the new balance of supply and demand after the price rise, Q2 sector will usher in a decisive battle and continue to be firmly optimistic.
Important industry events this week
1. Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co.Ltd(300409) comments; 2. Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) comments; 3. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) sales volume comments; 4. Comments on sales volume in the United States in March; 5. Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) follow up comments; 6. Byd Company Limited(002594) comments
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
