Key investment points:
Market review: this week’s home appliance (CITIC) industry index showed weak performance, down 1.67%. The weekly increase ranked 17th in CITIC’s first-class industry index, losing 0.61 percentage points to the CSI 300 index in the same period. In the subdivided industries, only the kitchen electricity sector received red, and the kitchen electricity and black electricity sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. In terms of individual stocks: individual stocks in the home appliance (CITIC) industry fell more or rose less this week, only 19 stocks recorded positive earnings, accounting for about 24%, and only 3 stocks increased by more than 5% this week; 57 stocks recorded negative returns, accounting for about 72%; Among them, there are 8 stocks with a weekly decline of more than 5%, and no stocks with a weekly decline of more than 10%. Valuation: as of April 8, 2022, the overall PE (TTM) of the home appliance (CITIC) industry was about 15.09 times, down 2.20% from last Friday. At present, it is lower than the average valuation level of the industry since 2017; The ratio of the overall PE (TTM) of the home appliance (CITIC) industry to the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 1.28 times, down 1.58% from last Friday. At present, it is lower than the average relative valuation level of the industry since 2017.
Industry operation data: according to ovicloud, in the 14th week of 2022, the online performance of all TV categories was better than that of offline, the omni-channel performance of clothes dryers was better, and the online sales of color TVs increased year-on-year; The sales performance of kitchen power has improved compared with that of last week, and the offline performance is better. The sales volume of integrated stove dishwasher has increased year-on-year; The performance of most small electric appliances in the kitchen is relatively poor, and only the electric steamer maintains positive year-on-year growth in all channel sales; The Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) performance of environmental health appliances has been differentiated. The Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) online sales of cleaning appliances and floor sweeping have increased year-on-year, the offline sales of water purifiers and drinking machines have increased year-on-year, and the sales of electric heating in all channels have increased year-on-year.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. In terms of shipping, although the cost of fuel increased, the international shipping cost decreased significantly; China’s export container freight rate index has fallen for eight consecutive weeks. The decline in shipping prices is mainly due to the upgrading of epidemic prevention and control in China, the obstruction of logistics and the impact on the operation of the supply chain, which has changed the supply-demand relationship that was difficult to find in a box. From the perspective of the export market of household appliances, the data of the General Administration of Customs shows that from January to February 2022, China exported a total of 549.11 million household appliances, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, mainly because the export of household appliances benefited from the epidemic situation and overseas policy incentives in the first half of 20202021. Under the influence of logistics obstruction, high base and other factors, it is expected that the export growth rate will decline in the first half of 2022, and the high base effect will slow down in the second half of 2022. In the Chinese market, although the sales scale of real estate enterprises generally declined year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, the current real estate policy has been relaxed compared with last year. More than 60 cities have issued policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions, reducing the proportion of down payment or issuing house purchase subsidies. It is expected that more cities will loosen the regulation of real estate in the future. According to Tongce Research Institute, the real estate market will reach the bottom in mid-2022 and is expected to pick up in the third quarter. The recovery of real estate will drive the consumption of household appliances, and the leading enterprises with strong comprehensive strength will take the lead in benefiting. To sum up, it is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises related to the power grid with more business in China and strong and stable comprehensive strength, such as Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ( Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ), Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) ( Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) ), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ( Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) ).
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, market risk caused by trade friction and tariff barriers, price war risk caused by intensified industry competition, epidemic risk, upstream raw material price fluctuation risk, policy change risk, etc.
