The epidemic situation in Shanghai and Jilin has led to short-term pressure on the production and sales of FAW, SAIC and Tesla. The layout of the automobile industry in China is relatively balanced, and the output share of Guangdong, Shanghai, Jilin, Hubei and Chongqing ranks in the forefront. At present, Jilin and Shanghai are seriously affected by the epidemic. In 2021, the total production / sales of the two places accounted for 20% / 5% of the country. SAIC, FAW, Byd Company Limited(002594) tesla account for a relatively high proportion of sales in Shanghai; The sales volume of FAW, great wall and Chang’an in Jilin is relatively high. Under the background of the epidemic, such car enterprises are more affected. In 2021, the sales volume of SAIC and Byd Company Limited(002594) in Shanghai accounted for about 6% of their total sales volume, which had little impact on the overall sales volume; Tesla and Weilai accounted for more than 16% and were greatly affected. In 2021, the sales of great wall and Chang’an in Jilin accounted for only about 2% of their total sales, which had little impact on the overall sales.
Due to the superposition of core shortage and epidemic, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in March were – 3.8% year-on-year, lower than our expected 9.4%. The epidemic caused short-term pressure on the production and marketing of passenger cars. In March, the wholesale of passenger cars was – 4% year-on-year / month on month + 10%; At the end of the month, the wholesale sales volume was + 31% year-on-year from 28 to 31, while it was – 21% and – 5% year-on-year in the third and fourth weeks of March, respectively. The marginal improvement was obvious. In March, the wholesale sales volume was – 3.8% year-on-year, down 13.2% from the 9.4% expected at the beginning of the year. In terms of different factors, the core deficiency and epidemic contributed – 5.4% and – 7.8% respectively.
Recovery history: the epidemic in 2020 led to a long and tortuous recovery period of the industry. The passenger car industry confirmed the current cycle recovery in September 2019, and the recovery died due to the impact of the epidemic in February 2020. With the control of the epidemic, the industry confirmed the second recovery in July 2020. The epidemic led to a tortuous and long process of this round of industry recovery.
Market performance this week: this week, the A-share auto sector (shenwanyi industry) – 2.62%, weaker than CSI 300 (- 1.06%), ranking 22nd among 32 shenwanyi industries. In the segment, other transportation equipment – 0.58%, automobile service – 2.69%, commercial trucks – 3.15%, commercial buses – 3.57%, auto parts – 4.54% and passenger cars – 4.54%. The top five gains of the auto sector this week were Harbin Viti Electronics Corp(603023) (+ 18.12%), Jiangsu Olive Sensors High-Tech Co.Ltd(300507) (+ 10.72%), Huaiji Dengyun Auto-Parts (Holding) Co.Ltd(002715) (+ 8.00%), Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) (+ 7.76%), Haima Automobile Co.Ltd(000572) (+ 6.79%); The top five declines were ST lion (- 11.05%), Zhejiang Jingu Company Limited(002488) (- 11.63%), Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) (- 12.20%), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (- 12.53%), Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) (- 14.71%).
Investment suggestion: under neutral and optimistic assumptions, the auto industry is expected to enter a new round of recovery in 2022h2. In the recovery period, it is recommended to configure the passenger car sector with early cycle attribute. Under the pessimistic assumption, the auto industry is expected to start a new recovery cycle in 2023. 22q4 suggests configuring the passenger car sector with early cycle attribute. Zhu Geli is optimistic that the 10-year-old gra Niu and parts industry will continue to be upgraded in 2022. Based on the assumption that the 10-year-old gra Niu and parts industry will continue to be upgraded in 2022, Zhu Geli is expected to open a new round of components and parts industry. Passenger car sector: it is recommended to pay attention to the recovery period and confirm the opportunities for systematic configuration of passenger car sector before and after the recovery period. Recommend Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and Geely Automobile. Parts section: the parts section recommends leading companies of chassis by wire Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) . It is suggested to pay attention to companies related to the industrial chain Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) and Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) .
Risk tip: the rise of raw material cost is higher than expected, the chip supply is lower than expected, and the market recovery is lower than expected
