Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : according to today’s wine price data, the Flying Box / bottle is 28202640 yuan, basically maintaining stability. Maotai 1935 price remained at 1420 yuan. The wholesale prices of products above Feitian have declined. The average annual price of treasures and the 15th five year plan has declined by 70 yuan, the Lunar New Year of the tiger has declined by 80 yuan, and the high-quality Maotai has declined by 30 yuan. As a new product, Maotai 1935’s price remains stable after large-scale production, which reflects its high cost performance and recognition. It is expected to continue to maintain a rapid pace of launch in the future; The products above Feitian, such as treasures, are mainly limited by the narrow audience brought by the high price. At present, the gift giving peak of the Spring Festival has passed, and the epidemic has not recovered. Therefore, the lack of consumption scene is more obvious. The price has continued to decline since the Spring Festival. If the epidemic continues, it is expected that the subsequent delivery rhythm may slow down Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : according to the feedback of channel research, the goods continued to be stopped in April, the general five wholesale prices remained at 965970 yuan in most regions, and the Guangdong wholesale prices rebounded slightly. The inventory is basically the same as that before (one month), mainly because the dynamic sales in the epidemic area are greatly affected. Dealers with difficulties can apply for reduction or adjust the payment plan, but there are no stronger price support measures on the whole. We believe that the benign price support is usually driven by inventory (supply) and dynamic sales (demand). At present, the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price support measures have been affected by the epidemic, but there is a great possibility of marginal improvement with the mitigation of the epidemic. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation repair opportunities brought by the upward pricing from May to June Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the price of 1573 high-grade national cellar is maintained at 920 yuan around the week, and the price of low-grade national cellar is also stable at 640 yuan. It is expected that the payment will start at the new cost in April, but the large-scale payment collection has not yet started.
Dairy products: continue to be optimistic about the resilience of demand for dairy products, with steady growth under the epidemic situation. Recently, China Dairy Industry Association released the production and operation of dairy industry in 2021 and key work in 2022. According to statistics, in 2021, the output of dairy products in the whole industry was 303166 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.44% (2.84% in the previous year), which was the highest growth rate since 2015. Among them, the output of liquid milk was 284298 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.68% (3.28% in the previous year); The output of milk powder was 979400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.76% (compared with – 9.43% in the previous year). The output of infant formula milk powder is about 870000 tons (estimated), with a year-on-year increase of about 16%. In 2021, China’s infant powder market capacity is about 1.15 million tons (272700 tons imported), and the market share of domestic infant powder is about 75%. According to the recent research feedback, the growth rate of Yili Mengniu’s inventory fell in March due to the decline of the inventory on the date of going to the big market, mainly due to the inventory on the date of going to the big market + the low gift base from January to February in the early stage + the impact of repeated supply chain logistics obstruction in the recent epidemic, in which the growth rate of Yili is slightly faster than Mengniu, the demand for terminal dynamic sales is still very strong, and the demand of the industry is strong.
Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) : the net interest rate of prefabricated vegetables has increased significantly, and it is expected that C end will make efforts to improve the profitability. The company announced the main financial data of the subsidiary Mr. frozen products. In 2021, Mr. frozen products achieved a sales revenue of 259 million yuan, a net profit of 9.09 million yuan and a net interest rate of 3.5%; From January to February 2022, it was 71.33 million yuan, with a net profit of 6.4 million yuan and a net interest rate of 9.0%. According to the research, the gross profit rate of prefabricated products at the B side is expected to be lower than that at the C side in 2027, and the gross profit rate of prefabricated products at the B side is expected to be lower than that at the C side in 2027. From January to February 2022, the sales of C-end products are good, especially pickled fish has the potential to become a large single product. The gross profit margin of C-end products is higher, and the investment cost during the Spring Festival is relatively small, so the net profit margin increases significantly. On the whole, we expect that after the company’s C-end force this year, the profitability of prefabricated dishes will be significantly improved year-on-year.
Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) : perfect ending in 21 years, looking forward to “double harvest” of revenue and profit in 22 years. The company released the performance forecast of 2021 annual report, which was in line with the previous forecast. The revenue in 21 years was 1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 41%, the net profit attributable to the parent was 300 million, a year-on-year increase of + 79%, the income from indirect shareholding in Dongpeng was 150 million, and the non attributable profit was deducted by 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%. 21q4 had a revenue of 400 million, a year-on-year increase of + 26%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 88 million, a year-on-year increase of + 21.5%, and a deduction of non attributable profit of 51 million, a year-on-year increase of + 17.5%. In terms of store business, in terms of opening stores, the number of stores expanded has reached a new high in recent five years, and the expansion in different places in South and North China has accelerated. By the end of 2021, the number of franchised stores in East China, South China and North China of the company was 3157 (+215), 481 (+101), 240 (+56) and 19 Direct stores (+2). In terms of single store revenue, the average revenue of the company’s franchise stores was + 23% year-on-year; The average revenue of Direct stores was + 80% year-on-year. The company’s measures to provide the same store have achieved initial results. The group meal business continued to grow rapidly, with a year-on-year increase of + 61.21%. The company adjusted the “East China group meal business department” to “East China major customer business department”, subdivided market regions and sales channels, subdivided customers into group meal customers, catering supply chain customers, chain convenience store customers, chain catering customers and fresh e-commerce platform customers, and established corresponding sales teams for development. The gross profit margin of 21q4 company is 28.14%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.4pct. It is expected that: (1) the pork price has declined greatly since Q3; (2) In November, the price of marginal products such as steamed bread was raised; (3) Q4 stores and group meals grew rapidly, increasing capacity utilization. The sales expense rate of 21q4 company was 5.9%, increased by 8.12pct at the same time, and increased by 0.82pct month on month compared with Q3. It is expected that there is no policy reduction for the annual sales expense bonus and social security expenditure accrued in Q4, resulting in the increase of employee salary. The revenue is expected to maintain high growth in 22 years, and the performance is more flexible. Revenue side: in terms of store opening, the company has arranged the South China investment promotion meeting in Jianli, Hubei in the first 22 years. The opening of stores in South China is expected to continue the acceleration momentum. It is expected that more than 700 stores in Central China will be consolidated from April. At the same time, the company will continue to empower stores with various measures, such as takeout business and lunch and dinner products. It is expected that the revenue of single stores will still improve. In terms of group meal, the group meal division of the company subdivides five sales channels and increases the investment in human resources. Profit side: considering the continuous release of low-cost pork dividends in 21 years, the embodiment of price increase and the rational investment of prepackaged products, the profit margin is expected to increase steadily.
Recommended combination in April: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . Maotai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , which have stable dynamic sales under the epidemic situation, and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , which are less affected by the epidemic situation and whose payment and dynamic sales continue to exceed expectations, are recommended. In terms of food, it is recommended to actively pay attention to Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , the layout of restaurant stewed flavor, and Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , where the profit elasticity can be expected. The rise and fall in the month were Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (3.78%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (3.57%), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (- 0.03%), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (- 0.49%), Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (- 1.73%), Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (- 4.65%) respectively, and the portfolio yield was 0.07%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01%, and the portfolio rose 0.08% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index.
Investment strategy: warm spring flowers bloom, active layout. After the adjustment since the beginning of the year, we believe that the worst moment has passed. At present, the valuation of core leading enterprises is relatively reasonable or slightly low, and the demand for food is relatively rigid. We suggest an active layout. Baijiu mainly pushed the strong, strong and strong Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The second high-end companies mainly promoted the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and the regional high-end high-end Chinese dragon makers, and suggested that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and sacrifice that the potential energy had already been built up. Yili, pickled mustard, Qiaqia, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, heavy beer, etc. are mainly recommended for food. Anjing, Ligao, Haitian, Juewei, Yuanzu, Ganyuan, etc. can also be considered.
Risk tips: the risk of global and Chinese epidemic spread, the risk of large outflow of foreign capital, sauce and wine inventory and policy.
