While walking and watching, the turning point may come later. Our early judgment on the automobile market in April is that “it is still a difficult month, but it may also be the turning point of the market this year”. We believe that after four months of adjustment, the valuation of the automobile sector is relatively reasonable, and the stock price may have responded to the more difficult fundamentals. With the epidemic controlled and the impact of the cost side eliminated, the medium and long-term logic will again become the dominant factor of the sector market. Therefore, we suggest “bargain hunting layout”. Now the market is interpreting the first half of the sentence. In the first week of April, the automobile index fell 2.71%, ranking 20 / 30, with weak performance. The judgment of “April may be the turning point of the market this year” may still need to be seen while walking, mainly because the epidemic disturbance exceeded our expectations. The inflection point of the epidemic in Shanghai is still unclear, and its negative spillover effect on the Yangtze River Delta is emerging. The impact of sealing control on production is “immediate”, and the impact on demand remains to be observed. Therefore, the turning point may be later than expected, but the rebound may be stronger at that time.
er、Semi产品也将在该工厂投产，合计规划产能达100万辆。2）技术角度看，该工厂将首次量产46800电池，整个车身将由一体化压铸前车身、CTC底盘、一体化压铸后车身3部分组成，简化制造流程、提升生产效率、降低生产成本。3）至此特斯拉全球4大整车工厂投产，上海、弗里蒙特现有产能分别为80万辆（2022年底预计100万辆）、60万辆，柏林、德州工厂规划产能分别为50万辆、100万辆，合计产能高达310万辆，为特斯拉未来两年扩张奠定坚实基础。’, ‘dstTesla Texas plant was officially put into operation, with a planned capacity of 1 million vehicles. After the Berlin plant was put into operation in March, Tesla‘s Austin plant in Texas was officially put into operation on April 7. 1) The planned production capacity of the plant is 500000 modely vehicles. Cybertruck, roadster and semi products will also be put into operation in the plant in 2023, with a total planned production capacity of 1 million vehicles. 2) From a technical point of view, the factory will mass produce 46800 batteries for the first time. The whole body will be composed of three parts: integrated die-casting front body, CTC chassis and integrated die-casting rear body, so as to simplify the manufacturing process, improve the production efficiency and reduce the production cost. 3) So far, Tesla‘s four major vehicle factories in the world have been put into operation. The existing production capacity of Shanghai and Fremont are 800000 (1 million expected by the end of 2022) and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) respectively. The planned production capacity of Berlin and Texas factories are 500000 and 1 million respectively, with a total production capacity of 3.1 million, laying a solid foundation for Tesla‘s expansion in the next two years.
The persistence of the epidemic exceeded expectations, and the automobile industry was greatly affected. Since March, the epidemic has been repeated in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Jilin and other production and marketing regions (the output of the above regions accounts for about 45%), which has greatly disturbed the production and demand of the automobile industry. In March, the average daily sales of passenger cars of the Federation of passenger cars was 57000, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% and a month on month increase of 10%; The average daily retail sales was 48000, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.8% and a month on month increase of 8%. The overall performance was weak. After entering April, the epidemic situation in Shanghai further aggravated, and its negative impact on the Yangtze River Delta further spilled out. The scope and sustainability of the impact exceeded expectations, increasing the uncertainty of production and sales in the second quarter.
Investment suggestions: 1) after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of the whole vehicle is reasonable; The prospect of independent rise is promising. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② . ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) .
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic on the automotive industry exceeded expectations; The sales volume is lower than expected; The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
