Zhou's view: focus on the leading targets with high dividend yield and leading growth in the first quarter
At present, sector opportunities rely more on top-down macro judgment. From the bottom up, we are optimistic about Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which has steady profit growth and high dividend yield, benefiting the subject China property insurance. At the same time, we are optimistic about the leading targets with leading growth rate in the first quarter report. We expect that the first quarter report of big wealth line leaders and head securities companies with obvious comprehensive advantages is expected to maintain a positive growth of about 10%, and the growth rate is expected to exceed the industry average.
Securities companies: they are optimistic about big wealth management and institutional business lines for a long time, and the growth rate of the leading companies in the first quarter is expected to lead
(1) from the perspective of policy, at the third member congress of the association of listed companies on April 9, Yi Huiman said on opening to the outside world: "we will pay close attention to studying and launching a new round of independent opening-up and pragmatic measures, steadily expand the scope of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong standard, and steadily expand the two-way opening of commodity and financial futures markets. We will accelerate the implementation of new regulations on the supervision of overseas issuance and listing of enterprises and keep the channels of overseas listing unblocked." (2) From the annual report and performance meeting of securities companies, wealth management, asset management and institutional business will still be the core to support the long-term profit growth of securities companies, and short-term stock market fluctuations have no impact on long-term business demand. 2022 is the first year of the formal implementation of the new asset management regulations. The fluctuations of the stock market and bond market also have a short-term impact on the net worth bank financial products. Some products have floating losses, and the demand for customer-centered wealth management has become stronger. (3) Looking forward to the first quarterly report of securities companies in 2022, we expect that the profits of the public fund business line and the derivative business line of neutral strategy of securities companies will maintain a good year-on-year growth, and the profits of big wealth line leaders and head securities companies with strong comprehensive advantages are expected to maintain a positive growth of about 10%. China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares) are recommended.
Boom: focus on property insurance
(1) at present, the life insurance industry is in the severe winter, and it has basically become a consensus that high-quality agents are the core of transformation, and the upgrading of channels + products + services should be carried out at the same time. There is no clear judgment on the effective time of the transformation. We believe that the efficiency improvement after the manpower bottoms out or a better forward-looking indicator. At present, the industry manpower is still in a downward trend. We expect that the probability of negative year-on-year growth of NBV in the first quarter of 2022 and the whole year is high. In terms of property insurance, the auto insurance business of head insurance enterprises has the advantages of data, pricing and service. With the increase of average vehicle premium, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the optimization of the pattern, the auto insurance may usher in a high outlook. At the same time, the impact of major disasters may be less than 2021, and the head insurance enterprises are expected to achieve better underwriting profits.
(2) the boom of auto insurance and non auto insurance business is noteworthy. China property insurance has benefited significantly, and the dividend rate of China property insurance is high; At present, life insurance is at the bottom of valuation, and the pessimistic expectation response on the liability side and asset side is relatively sufficient. However, the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic boom in 2022 and the growth rate of NBV in the process of transformation are still uncertain. Recommend Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has a large space for asset side repair, recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and benefit the target China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) h shares;
Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) ;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
