In March, the local auction rose month on month and still fell sharply year-on-year. March ushered in the first batch of supply and transaction climax of centralized land supply during the year. The supply and demand of the national land market rebounded month on month, but it still fell sharply year-on-year. 1) In terms of transaction scale, six cities completed the first round of centralized local auction in March, but the transaction scale of most cities is small. According to CRIC statistics, the transaction construction area of operational land in the national land market reached 64.63 million square meters, an increase of 55% month on month, but a year-on-year decrease of 60%. 2) In terms of premium rate, driven by the obvious recovery of the first round of centralized local auction in Hefei, Xiamen, Chongqing and other cities, the average premium rate reached 4.5% in March, an increase of 0.3 percentage points month on month, but far less than 18% in the same period last year. 3) In terms of streaming rate, the phenomenon of genre has intensified under the increase of supply. The streaming rate reached 18% in March, an increase of 4 percentage points month on month, doubling compared with the same period last year.
The differentiation of cold and hot soil patting in different regions is obvious. Under the adjustment of lowering the transfer threshold of high-quality plots and raising the housing price limit, some cities, such as Chongqing and Hefei, have significantly recovered their land auction, with premium rates of 5.4% and 11.2% respectively, resulting in a hot situation of multiple land transactions; In contrast, the plots with remote location and large surrounding inventory are still difficult to sell successfully. For example, six plots in Fuzhou have been withdrawn or sold, and the auction rate is as high as 33%. The total construction area sold in Wuhan is 930000 square meters, less than 5% of last year, and the premium rate is only 1%.
Canceling or relaxing the purchase and sale restriction policy has become a new focus of relaxation in the local real estate market. In the near future, in addition to reducing the down payment ratio, reducing the housing loan interest rate and increasing the loan amount, the cancellation of restrictive measures such as purchase and sale restrictions has begun to become another breakthrough point in the current property market deregulation, and the policy relaxation has entered a more comprehensive stage. On March 1, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province launched the first shot of opening up the purchase restriction, stipulating that the elderly can buy a new house from their families. In fact, the purchase restriction was cancelled. On April 1, Quzhou, Zhejiang Province issued the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of urban real estate industry, becoming the first city in China to cancel both purchase and sale restrictions. According to incomplete statistics, at present, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Harbin, Qingdao, Jimo, Quzhou, Qinhuangdao and other places have abolished restrictive measures such as purchase and sales restrictions. Under the current policy guidance of promoting reasonable housing demand and a virtuous circle of the industry, it is expected that there will be a round of “exit tide” of purchase and sale restrictions in various places in the future.
The cumulative sales area in April was – 49.9% year-on-year and – 19.4% month on month. According to the statistics of commercial housing transactions in 32 cities across the country, the cumulative transaction area in April (as of August) was – 49.9% year-on-year and – 19.4% month on month. Among them, the first tier cities were – 48.6% year-on-year and – 39.5% month on month; Second tier cities – 49.0% year-on-year and – 9.4% month on month; Third and fourth tier cities were – 53.0% year-on-year and 30% month on month. Among the first tier cities, Shenzhen increased by + 49.7% month on month, with the highest growth rate; Among the second tier cities in the statistics, Wuhan, Suzhou, Qingdao and Nanning performed better than other cities, achieving positive growth month on month, of which Nanning increased by 70.3% month on month; The performance of the third and fourth tier cities is different, and the overall performance is less than that in March.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
