Weekly market review (202204.4-202204.8): this week, the pharmaceutical sector fell 3.94%, 2.59 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, and the PE (TTM) of the pharmaceutical sector was about 28 times. On April 8, Guangdong Province publicized the results of the proposed selection / selection of Guangdong alliance Qingkailing and other Chinese patent medicine centralized belt procurement. This week, we combed and discussed the details of the varieties, decline, manufacturers and so on.
The overall decline of this centralized purchase is controllable, which is conducive to the large-scale use of Chinese patent medicine in the hospital. From the final procurement results, 636 varieties of 313 enterprises participated in centralized procurement, and 576 products of 275 enterprises finally completed the quotation. Finally, 361 varieties / product specifications of 174 enterprises were proposed to win the bid, including 27 exclusive products. According to past historical statistics, we measure the overall decline of this centralized purchase in three dimensions: the national lowest winning price, the national median winning price and the Guangdong winning price in 2021. The average decline of this centralized purchase compared with the above three dimensions is 13%, 34% and 19% respectively. The overall decline is controllable, which is conducive to the large-scale expansion of Chinese patent medicine in the hospital.
The price system of exclusive varieties remains excellent and is expected to provide high performance flexibility in the future. From the perspective of exclusive and non exclusive varieties, we find that the bid winning price of exclusive varieties remains excellent. Assuming that the national lowest bid winning price through incomplete statistics is taken as the benchmark, the bid winning price of non exclusive varieties in this centralized procurement decreases by 15%, while that of exclusive varieties decreases by only 11%. Assuming that the national median bid winning price or the 21-year bid winning price of Guangdong Province is used, this difference will be more obvious.
Recommended portfolio of stocks this week: 1) Growth Portfolio: Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , kingship biotechnology, Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ; 2) Steady combination: gushengtang, Baicheng medicine, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) ; 3) Elastic combination: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557)
Investment suggestion: the centralized purchase in Guangdong Province covers a wide range of varieties and manufacturers, and the overall decline is controllable. In particular, the decline of exclusive varieties is significantly better than that of non exclusive varieties, which is quite good for exclusive varieties enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) and other objects with important exclusive products. We expect that this centralized purchase will accelerate the promotion and use of Chinese patent medicine in the hospital, benefit the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry in the long run, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the risk of policy change, the risk that the price reduction pressure is greater than expected, and the regulatory risk
