Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 20th, and the PE of SW passenger car was in the historical quantile of 90%; SW car fell 2.6%, underperforming the market by 0.9pct. Except for SW passenger cars, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial buses, SW auto parts and SW auto services showed a decline. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 20th this week, ranking lower. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 90% / 82% quantile respectively, and the quantile is the same as that of last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are at the historical 57% / 34% quantile respectively, with the quantile of - 4pct / - 6pct compared with last week. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 202204.02 ~ 202204.09, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and retail rose month on month; Enterprise & Channel replenishment. From March 28 to 31, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 109566, with a year-on-year increase of - 5% and a month on month increase of + 51%; In March, the cumulative daily average retail sales volume of passenger cars was 48408, with a year-on-year increase of - 15% and a month on month increase of + 8%; From March 28 to 31, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 121114, with a year-on-year increase of + 31% and a month on month increase of + 45%; In March, the cumulative daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars was 57209, with a year-on-year increase of - 4% and a month on month increase of + 10%. The output of narrow passenger cars in February was 1.492 million, up + 31.4% year-on-year and - 27.0% month on month; The wholesale sales volume was 1.455 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% and a month on month increase of - 32.6%.; In February, there were 1115500 strong traffic insurance vehicles in the industry, with a month on month ratio of - 10.76% / - 48.83% respectively. Inventory: in February, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 37000, and the channel inventory was + 193000.
Key focus: the price of raw materials decreased slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (04.06-04.08) was - 0.49% month on month (03.28-04.01), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were - 3.11% / - 3.49% / - 1.94% / - 0.70% / + 0.21% month on month (MOM) respectively.
Investment suggestion: the automobile sector may have bottomed out. We are firmly optimistic about the automobile investment opportunities in 2022. It is recommended to over match! 1) Chip Q2 is expected to continue to alleviate + policy underpinning economy + release of rigid demand. China's passenger car traffic compulsory insurance data is expected to be positive in Q2 and Q3. 2) The demand impact of the price increase of new energy vehicles is relatively limited. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ideal car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Xiaopeng Car + Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) ]. Plate recommendation for parts and components sector recommendation [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) \ ], pay attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
