Market review: this week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.06%, and the Shenwan agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index fell 4.72%. Among the secondary sub industries: fruit and vegetable processing, forestry and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing ranked among the top, with an increase of 3.26%, a decrease of 1.42% and a decrease of 3.92% respectively. Top three gainers of some key stocks: Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.Ltd(600251) (+ 7.92%), Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(605016) (+ 7.89%), ST Huaying (+ 5.22%). Top three declines: Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300972) (- 17.98%), Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) (- 12.13%), Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) (- 10.81%).
Pig breeding: following the completion of the collection and storage of the third batch of reserve meat (40000 tons) from April 2 to April 3, the national development and Reform Commission issued a document on April 8 to collect and store another 40000 tons of frozen pork in the near future, which is expected to slightly boost the price of pigs. Under the combined effect of the boost of the collection and storage signal and the forced hurdle pressure of some farmers under the epidemic, the pig price rose slightly to 12.43 yuan / kg this week (12.23 yuan / kg last week, mom + 1.64%), but it is still low overall. At present, the single head loss of farmers has eased, but the self breeding loss is still 500 + yuan / head. Retail investors are further cleared, the capital pressure on the scale field is increased, and the de industrialization of production capacity is expected to accelerate. At present, the valuation of pig breeding stocks is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to look at the long term from the short term, and pay attention to the cyclical upward certainty expectation brought by the deregulation of production capacity. Key recommendations: Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) : cost leadership, strong growth certainty, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) : sufficient capital reserves and effective cost control in the near future.
Planting industry chain: under the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war, it is estimated that the sowing area of spring sowing crops such as corn, grain, sugar beet and Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) in Ukraine and China is about 13.4 million hectares, a decrease of 3.5 million hectares compared with 2021, and the output of main crops is expected to decrease by 20%. At the same time, the Black Sea port was closed due to the impact of the war, and Ukraine's transportation capacity was greatly affected. It is expected that the export of grain in the next three months will be only 1 million tons, which is a large gap from the pre war forecast of 65 million tons. Considering that the total export volume of wheat and corn in Ukraine accounts for 12% and 16% of the total global export volume respectively, the reduction of Ukrainian grain export volume will inevitably lead to the rise of global grain prices. In 2021, China's external dependence on soybeans and corn was 85.5% and 9.39% respectively. The unit yield of corn and soybeans in China was less than 60% of that in the United States. In 2021, the No. 1 central document proposed that we should vigorously promote the key agricultural core technologies such as provenance, implement the action plan of seed industry and start the major projects of agricultural biological breeding to ensure the national food security. In the current environment of rising global food prices and restrictions on food exports in many countries, transgenic technology is expected to accelerate the implementation. Key recommendations: Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) : abundant reserves of transgenic technology, Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) : corn seeds are expected to increase both quantity and price.
Broiler breeding: according to the report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture on April 4, at present, avian influenza in the United States has infected 23 states in the United States, resulting in the slaughter of more than 27 million birds, which is the most serious avian influenza epidemic in the United States after 2015. On February 5, 2022, China's customs has issued a document prohibiting the import of meat and poultry from Canada. In the future, China may prohibit the import of poultry products from the United States to protect China's biosafety. In 2021, China imported 1.4803 million tons of poultry meat, accounting for 6.22% of China's poultry meat output; In 2021, the stock of ancestral chicken of Chinese white feather broiler was 1712900 sets. According to the distribution of ancestral chicken varieties, 90% of them were foreign varieties, and about 31% (about 530000 sets) came from the United States. At present, the supply level of white feather chicken in China is at an all-time high, and the price of chicken continues to be depressed. If the customs is closed later, it will be good for the promotion of domestic ancestral chicken and the prosperity of white feather chicken industry. It is expected that the price elasticity of ancestral chicken is better than that of commodity generation. Highlights: Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) : own ancestral breeding chickens, sell breeding chickens and parental generation chicken seedlings.
Risk warning: capacity reduction is less than expected / the promotion process of GM corn is delayed / animal disease outbreak / Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuation.
