Summary of this issue:
Crude oil: prices fell sharply. In the early part of the week, OPEC + continued to increase production slightly. At the same time, US President Biden announced the release plan of 180 million barrels of US strategic oil reserves. However, the EU intensified sanctions against Russia, the uncertainty of crude oil supply supported the market atmosphere, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. In the late part of the week, the largest crude oil reserve in the history of the United States was released. At the same time, the International Energy Agency planned to release 120 million barrels of crude oil from the crude oil reserve and the U.S. crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly. The spread of the epidemic in Asia triggered concerns about energy demand in the market. In addition, the US Federal Reserve released hawkish signals to boost the US dollar, putting pressure on oil prices. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 104.81 (- 5.68) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 100.33 (- 3.88) USD / barrel.
PX: the market operates in a range of shocks. The international crude oil price fell sharply and the cost side support was insufficient; However, the PX supply and demand structure has improved significantly this week. The overall start-up of PX units in large factories in East China has been reduced, and the unit load in Fujian has also been slightly reduced, resulting in a decline in the supply of PX market. However, the overall demand for raw materials in PTA week has increased slightly, and the good supply and demand structure has helped to adjust the processing difference of PX market upward. However, due to the gradual slowdown of cost side support, the action force on PX is insufficient. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 117939 (- 9.13) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 411.82 (+ 29.86) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 257.99 (+ 41.52) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 68.00% (- 1.53pct).
PTA: the overall market decline. The international crude oil price has fallen sharply and the cost side support is limited; In the PTA market itself, the spot circulation is still tight and the basis continues to strengthen, but many places are affected by the epidemic and the logistics transportation is slow; The downstream polyester demand began to weaken, the willingness to reserve high cost was not high, and the demand for raw materials mainly met the rigid demand; Weak domestic and foreign trade markets in the terminal market; Although the supply and demand theory of PTA market realizes de stocking, it is difficult to form a strong support for the market; During the week’s long and short game, the upward and downward ranges of PTA market are limited. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 616143 (+ 28.57) yuan / ton, the average net profit per ton of the industry is -37.39 (+ 35.70) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 69.80% (+ 0.10pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1825000 (- 10000) tons.
MEG: the market price is light and stable. The international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, the international price center of naphtha was downward, the price center of power coal was stable, and the cost side support was general. From the supply side, for the start-up of Chinese units, the load of a set of ethylene glycol unit in Inner Mongolia was reduced for maintenance, and China’s output decreased. However, due to the downstream demand and logistics and transportation problems, the port delivery was slow, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and there was still pressure on the supply side. In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, it is difficult to be optimistic about the end consumption of the polyester industry chain. The operating load of the weaving industry has decreased significantly since the Qingming holiday. Under the dual pressure of increased inventory and profit loss, polyester factories have successively reduced production, the overall operating load of the industry has decreased, the demand for raw materials has decreased, and the demand side is bad. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 502357 (- 147.86) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 9705 (+ 0.00) million tons, and the operating rate is 65.20% (- 0.60pct).
Polyester filament: market narrow adjustment. At the beginning of the week, during the Qingming Festival holiday, polyester filament enterprises mostly stayed on the sidelines. At present, the epidemic situation in many places is severe, the downstream and terminal operating rates are declining, the demand side fatigue is difficult to hide, which has dragged down the market atmosphere, and the future market expectations of market participants are pessimistic. In the middle of the week, the PTA Market of the main raw material was up and the support was strong. However, due to the weak demand, many filament manufacturers offered stable prices, and individual quotations were reduced. There was no significant change in the focus of market transactions, maintaining a weak and stable operation. There was a certain demand in the downstream after the festival, the procurement maintained rigid demand, and the market production and sales increased slightly. At present, the international oil price once fell sharply, the cost side is not good for the time being, the quotation of polyester filament enterprises is temporarily stable, local negotiations are loose, the focus of market transactions is declining, and the operation is weak. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy792571 (- 181.43) yuan / ton, fdy834286 (- 92.86) yuan / ton and dty948571 (- 150.00) yuan / ton, the industry average single ton profit is poy-153.40 (- 103.36) yuan / ton, fdy-142.03 (- 44.57) yuan / ton and DTY + 19.16 (- 82.50) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy31.00 yuan / ton respectively 80 (+ 2.30) days, fdy32 50 (+ 2.70) days and dty35 80 (+ 1.30) days, operating rate 91.80% (+ 3.20pct).
Weaving: the overall market performance is weak. Since the Qingming Festival, due to the frequent epidemic, the decline of downstream and terminal construction, the overall market performance is weak, and most of them choose to carry out rigid demand procurement locally. In the short term, it is difficult to improve the terminal demand. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 49.97% (-11.99pct), and the grey fabric inventory is 35.00 (+ 0.50) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the focus of market transaction increased slightly. At the beginning of the week, the international oil price rose, but China is in the Qingming holiday, so the quotation of short fiber enterprises has not been adjusted. In the middle of the week, the overnight oil price fell, but it warmed up during the day. In addition, the disk of PTA and staple fiber futures rose significantly during the day, and the enterprise offer remained stable and wait-and-see. However, under the cost pressure, the real order preference was reduced, the transaction focus moved upward, the downstream returned after the festival and made appropriate replenishment, and the overall production and sales rose significantly. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 778429 (- 6.66) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is -81.34 (+ 12.63) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 2.40 (- 0.80) days, and the operating rate is 71.20% (- 4.20pct).? Polyester bottle chip: the market price fluctuates downward. On the supply side, the inventory of China’s polyester bottle and chip factories decreased slightly this week. This week, the crude oil market fluctuated at a high level, the cost support was general, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was obvious. In addition, the recent serious epidemic situation, the difficulty in getting goods in the downstream, and the market turnover was less. The demand for soft drinks in various regions has been reduced, and the demand for soft drinks in the market has been largely reduced. The demand for soft drinks in most areas has been kept on the sidelines, resulting in a cautious attitude, and the demand for soft drinks in the market has been reduced in the near future. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 821000 (- 154.29) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 333.95 (- 85.34) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 91.10% (- 4.10pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to April 8, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 135.22%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by 1.48%, and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 10.02%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
