This week's research focus: Comments on the data of the staff of small household appliance business in March
On the whole, affected by the epidemic and transportation capacity, the growth rate of small household appliance industry fell in March: in terms of kitchen and small electricity, the traditional category had a year-on-year negative growth in March; Among the emerging categories, the prosperity of air fryer is high; Popular long tail categories have emerged, and the trend of demand differentiation and health is obvious. In terms of clean appliances, since the first quarter is the off-season of sales, the sales of categories can not represent the trend of the whole year. However, from the growth performance, Ali Series sales of Q1 floor washer, floor sweeper, mite remover, vacuum cleaner and other categories have achieved year-on-year double-digit growth, indicating that the prosperity of clean appliances is still relatively high. In terms of personal massage, the growth rate of massage chair continued to decline in the first quarter, and the growth of razor and massage small electricity was achieved.
Kitchen appliances: the prosperity of emerging categories is rising, popular long tail categories are emerging, and the growth rate of brands is differentiated
Category end: the high base in the same period last year caused by the epidemic, combined with the recent epidemic in China, has damaged the transportation capacity, resulting in pressure on the sales of small kitchen e-commerce in March. Among them, in March, the transaction amount of Ali series, a sub category of traditional kitchen appliances, showed a year-on-year negative growth, and the trading index of electric kettle in the first quarter increased slightly year-on-year; There is an obvious differentiation trend in the growth rate of emerging kitchen small electricity, among which the trading index of air fryer has maintained positive growth since August 21. At the same time, in the first quarter, many high growth long tail categories emerged on e-commerce platforms, such as juice machine, electric bubble maker, medicine grinder and disinfection machine, and the trend of healthy and high-end consumption continued.
Brand side: the sales growth of Ali series of Q1 kitchen small electric brand has been differentiated. Among them, Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Dongling achieved double-digit growth and performed well. We believe that after a year of weak demand and downward growth, the demand for small kitchen electricity is expected to gradually improve. At the same time, considering the continuation of the epidemic in Shanghai and the strengthening of epidemic control in various places, the increased demand of consumers for food storage and home cooking is also expected to bring incremental demand for kitchen small electricity and cooking utensils, among which the popularity of categories with more diversified health attributes, social attributes and functions is expected to increase. However, considering that the impact of this round of epidemic is weaker than that of the first round in 20 years, and consumers are becoming more rational in the face of the epidemic, the boosting effect of the epidemic on health small household appliances may be relatively limited.
Clean electrical appliances: the growth rate of sales slowed down in the off-season, and the prosperity of subdivided circuits remained stable
Category side: the first quarter just experienced the great promotion season at the end of last year, and new products in 22 years are being released successively. It is a low-season for the sales of clean appliances, which can not fully reflect the overall sales trend of the whole year. However, based on the year-on-year + 51% sales of vacuum cleaners in the first quarter, Alibaba is leading the cleaning appliance industry; After the base effect gradually faded, the overall growth rate of the washing machine still maintained a high double-digit growth, highlighting the momentum of category development. Therefore, we believe that the clean electrical circuit still has a high landscape.
Brand side: the growth rate of different brands in the first quarter was differentiated due to different main categories. Among them, the performance of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and other brands was relatively stable, and the growth rate of stone and other brands was higher year-on-year due to the low base effect.
Personal massage: the heat of massage chair continues to drop, and 22q1 razor and massage small electricity achieve growth
Category end: the year-on-year growth rate of massage chairs continued to fall in the first quarter, and the year-on-year growth of razors and massage small electricity was achieved.
Brand end: 22Q1 FLYCO Ali trading volume double digit growth year by year, leading the protection industry, we believe that this is mainly from the Valentine's Day gift box sales, companies in the new channel promotion and other factors, such as jitter, so FLYCO main razor tiktok sales since the beginning of the year continued to heat. In terms of massage brands, Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) increased slightly year-on-year and performed relatively well. Rongtai, Xiamen Comfort Science & Technology Group Co.Ltd(002614) and other brands slowed down because the main category was massage chairs.
Price trend of raw materials: on April 8, 2022, the spot settlement prices of SHFE copper and aluminum were 73900 and 21850 yuan / ton respectively; SHFE copper was + 0.91% and aluminum was - 3.57% compared with last week; Since the beginning of this year, the price of copper has increased by 6.04% and that of aluminum by 7.79%. On April 8, 2022, the price index of China plastic city was 1027.9, up from + 0.61% last week and + 3.52% this year. On April 8, 2022, the comprehensive steel price index was 142.51, up from + 1.29% last week and + 8.13% this year.
Investment suggestion: considering the marginal impact of strong epidemic control and high bulk cost, we suggest that the layout should still be based on the target high quality + undervalued value. At the same time, the demand for refrigerators and household appliances in Shanghai may continue to increase, but it is not certain that the epidemic will continue to increase. At the same time, the demand for refrigerators and household appliances in Shanghai may also benefit from the strengthening of control. Therefore, we recommend paying attention to high-quality and clear valuation targets such as [ Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) ] (China's refrigerator / freezer business accounted for 20% of operating profit in 21 years, which may be upgraded or new purchase demand in the short term due to the continuous epidemic), [ Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) ] (real estate + second curve), [ Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ] (fundamental recovery + overseas profit improvement, and there may be new demand in the short term due to the continuous epidemic), The growth rate of [ 35.
Risk tip: the expansion of the epidemic situation, the risk of fluctuations in the real estate market, exchange rate and raw material prices, etc.
