Core view
In the first quarter, the progress of issuing special bonds was accelerated, and major projects in many places were started in a centralized manner. In the first quarter of this year, the country issued 1.30 trillion new special bonds, compared with only 26.4 billion in the same period last year. At present, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds accounts for 89% of the amount approved in advance and 36% of the annual issuance plan. The issuance progress is the fastest over the years. Recently, relevant government departments have repeatedly asked to make good use of government bonds, expand effective investment and promptly issue the remaining special debt quota. Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued the remaining special debt quota to the provincial financial department, which is earlier than that in previous years, which helps to speed up the completion of special debt issuance, realize the implementation and commencement of the project as soon as possible, and alleviate the economic downside risk to a certain extent. In addition to some areas repeatedly affected by the epidemic, project commencement has occurred in many places since April, including Anhui, Heilongjiang, Henan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Tianjin and other places. It is expected that the investment and commencement progress of projects in areas less affected by the epidemic are expected to accelerate in the second quarter.
The epidemic affects the pace of demand recovery and pays attention to the underestimated value and high-quality leaders. At present, the industry is at the turn of the slack and peak seasons, and the demand is still in the recovery stage, but the latest data show that the overall recovery rhythm is slow, which will strengthen the market’s game expectation that “the worse the demand, the more the policy needs to be further overweight”; In addition, recently, the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission have continuously introduced relevant measures to accelerate “steady growth”. Local governments have also continuously relaxed real estate regulation policies to stabilize the operation of the real estate market. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant varieties with capital construction and real estate demand and high safety margin of valuation, and grasp the window investment opportunities of cement and real estate chain building materials in the short term. The tracking and investment suggestions of each sub industry at the current time point are as follows:
Cement: the demand chain ratio has increased slightly, and the shipment level has improved slightly. However, due to the recurrence of the epidemic, the regional control is still relatively strict, the road transportation is not smooth, and the recovery of downstream demand is blocked, the national cement price maintains a volatile adjustment trend, in which there is a certain decline in East China and Central South China, and the price in Chongqing increases. As of April 8, the national p.o42 5. The average price of high-standard cement was 506.67 yuan / ton, down 0.62% month on month, and the storage capacity ratio was 67.13%, an increase of 2 percentage points month on month. The short term is to keep a focus on the prevention and control of the epidemic and the release of downstream demand. At the moment, the valuation of a leading cement company is cheap, and the high dividend offers a good margin of safety. The recommendations of ‘ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ;
Glass: there has been no significant increase in new orders in the industry recently, and there are a small amount of replenishment in some regional processing plants. However, the transportation in some regions in the north and south is limited this week, and the market is still weak. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of float glass in China’s mainstream market this week was 204576 yuan / ton, down 0.62% month on month. The inventory of production enterprises in key provinces was 45.28 million heavy containers, an increase of 830000 heavy containers month on month. Short term suggestions: pay attention to downstream commencement and new orders; The medium and long-term technological upgrading of the glass industry is still the focus. It is recommended that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) .
Other building materials: ① glass fiber industry: the market price of alkali free tank kiln roving continued a stable trend this week, with little change in market trading during the week. The price adjustment of most enterprises tended to be cautious, the inventory level was ok, and the short-term or stable trend was maintained. The price of electronic yarn market still maintained a downward trend in the near future, the demand support of terminal market was relatively general, and the price or inventory decreased and stabilized, and individual factories were close to the cost line; In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, driven by the demand side, the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to be optimized, the competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated in the future, and the current price can continue to be long. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; ② Other building materials: the resilience of real estate investment remains, and the market share of leading enterprises in various sub industries has increased steadily. It is suggested to hold the bargain hunting layout for a long time. It is recommended to Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; Higher than expected cost increase
