Industry core view:
Last week, the electronic index (Shenwan level) fell as a whole, with a decline of – 4.67%, 3.61 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Divided by sub industries, other electronic II sectors in the secondary industry had the smallest decline of – 3.32%; Semiconductor sector fell the most, at – 5.58%. The overall valuation of the electronic sector is still low, and the investment value is significant. In the industry dynamics last week, in terms of silicon materials, the prices of single crystal and polycrystalline materials increased slightly, which was mainly caused by the strong demand in the downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain and the tight overall supply. In terms of semiconductor packaging, Huawei has announced a patent for chip stack packaging and terminal equipment, which can not only ensure the power supply demand, but also solve the high cost problem caused by the adoption of silicon through-hole technology. With the chip process size approaching the theoretical physical limit of 2nm, 3D packaging technology is expected to further improve the chip integration and performance. Investors are advised to pay attention to the important boom tracks in the electronics industry and recommend landscape segmentation fields such as storage, MCU and power semiconductor.
The prices of photovoltaic silicon materials and silicon wafers increased slightly: on April 6, Jibang consulting released the supply price data of photovoltaic industry chain, and the prices of single crystal materials and polycrystalline silicon wafers increased slightly; According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, the prices of polycrystalline silicon compacts and monocrystalline silicon wafers in China have continued to rise since February this year; This is mainly because the demand side is driven by China’s photovoltaic construction and export growth, and the demand for photovoltaic silicon materials is increasing; At the same time, due to the process restrictions such as crystal seed and crystal drawing, the increase of silicon material and silicon wafer production capacity is limited. Under the mismatch of supply and demand, the price of silicon material and silicon wafer continues to rise. According to the current capacity construction plan of production enterprises, the rising trend of photovoltaic silicon material price may cover the whole year of 2022.
Huawei announced a 3D Packaging patent, which is conducive to reducing chip costs: on April 5, Huawei announced a chip stack packaging and terminal equipment. The patent summary shows that this technology can solve the high cost problem caused by the adoption of silicon through-hole technology while ensuring the power supply demand. In recent years, the size of semiconductor process has been declining. At present, TSMC and Samsung have realized large-scale production of 5nm process, which is another breakthrough since the realization of 7Nm process in 2019. The density of integrated circuit transistors has further increased and the computing power has been improved again. However, as the theoretical physical limit 2nm of silicon materials is approaching, Moore’s law will be tested in the future. In recent years, 3D packaging technology, which has attracted much attention, can further improve the density of integrated circuit transistors by packaging multiple chips together, and continuously improve the performance of integrated circuit products in the post Moore era.
The industry valuation level gradually entered a lower range: the PE (TTM) of SW electronics sector was 23.30 times, significantly lower than the peak level of 88.11 times in the 4G construction cycle.
The performance of the electronics sector rebounded last week: among the 367 stocks in Shenwan electronics industry last week, 30 rose, 332 fell and 5 remained flat, with an increase ratio of 8.17%.
Risk factors: the risk of continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine; Trade friction risk; The risk of technology R & D not keeping up with expectations; The risk of intensified competition in the same industry.
