Market review:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index fell 0.66%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 1.06% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index outperformed the market by 0.40 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index rose 1.95%, outperforming the market by 3.01 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Kunming Chuan Jin Nuo Chemical Co.Ltd(300505) (22.59%), Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) (16.31%), Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) (15.63%), Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) (14.75%), Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (13.83%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Gpro Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(000545) (- 19.54%), Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) (- 19.41%), Shandong Fengyuan Chemical Co.Ltd(002805) (- 12.81%), Zhongfu Shenying (- 12.45%), Shenzhen Sunrise New Energy Co.Ltd(002256) (- 11.89%).
Key investment points:
Phosphate fertilizer: last week, the price of phosphate fertilizer remained high. As of April 8, the spot prices of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 362500 yuan / ton and 364000 yuan / ton respectively. Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other six departments issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan. The opinions pointed out that it is necessary to strictly control the new production capacity of ammonium phosphate, yellow phosphorus and other products and speed up the elimination of backward production capacity. This also means that during the “14th five year plan” period, the supply and demand structure of phosphorus chemical products such as ammonium phosphate will continue to improve, and the industry concentration will continue to increase. On the supply side, at present, some ammonium phosphate units are still shut down for maintenance, and the operation of the industry is weak, especially the weak operation of monoammonium phosphate. At the same time, affected by the epidemic, the logistics delivery is blocked, which aggravates the tension of ammonium phosphate spot to a certain extent. On the demand side, the current downstream demand season is still good. On the raw material side, the prices of phosphate rock and sulfur have a strong atmosphere of pushing up, while the price of synthetic ammonia has dropped slightly. On the whole, the support force on the cost side is still relatively strong. Overseas, according to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 8, the FOB bulk price of 55% particles of monoammonium phosphate in Morocco was US $1266.5/ton, and the FOB bulk price of diammonium phosphate in Morocco was US $1237 / ton. On the whole, due to the impact of cost, international market, supply and demand and other aspects, it is expected that the price of phosphate fertilizer at home and abroad will remain high in the short term, and the possibility of continuing to rise is not ruled out. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to relevant leading enterprises.
Glyphosate: last week, glyphosate prices continued to consolidate at a low level. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 8, the quotation of some glyphosate suppliers was 65000 yuan / ton, the transaction of 95% raw powder was 62 Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) 00 yuan / ton, and the FOB of the port was 980011000 dollars / ton. On the demand side, at present, downstream purchasers are still cautious in order inquiry and procurement in the downward range of glyphosate price, and the market transaction situation is cold. On the supply side, the inventory of glyphosate is rising again due to logistics obstruction and weak downstream demand. On the cost side, last week, the price of glycine maintained consolidation, the price of yellow phosphorus decreased and the price of liquid chlorine increased slightly. It is expected that glyphosate will maintain the consolidation state in the short term, and the inventory pressure on the supply side may continue to expand.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the risk of continuous fluctuation of international crude oil price, the risk of repeated impact of epidemic situation in some parts of China on enterprise operation, and the risk of sharp fluctuation of chemical product price.
