The sales volume of excavator in March was - 53% year-on-year, which was in line with expectations under the high base
In March 2022, the sales volume of excavator industry was 37085 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 53.1%, basically in line with the previous CME expectation of - 49%. Among them, 26556 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year increase of - 63.6%; 10529 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 73.5%. Exports maintained a strong growth trend, and the proportion of sales volume in the total sales volume jumped to 28.4. From January to March 2022, the cumulative sales volume of the excavator industry was 77175 units, a year-on-year decrease of 39.2%. Among them, 51886 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%; Export sales increased by 252688% year-on-year.
Since April, the decline of the industry is expected to narrow, and it is optimistic that the annual sales data will gradually pick up
The excavator industry declined significantly in March 2022, mainly due to the ultra-high base in the same period and the impact of local epidemic in early March on the commencement of downstream projects. With the epidemic under control, the operating rate rebounded and the sales data base decreased in the same period, we expect the year-on-year decline in industry sales to narrow from April, which is expected to show a backward trend in the peak season of 2020. We are optimistic that the sales of construction machinery will gradually pick up under the background of steady growth throughout the year.
High export growth momentum is strong, which is expected to significantly smooth China's cyclical fluctuations
In March, 10529 excavators were exported, a year-on-year increase of + 73.5%; From January to March 2022, the cumulative export sales of excavators were 25289, with a year-on-year increase of 88.6%. Considering the recovery of overseas markets and the improvement of the global competitiveness of domestic brands, we judge that the subsequent export growth momentum is sufficient. In the first quarter of 2021, the export volume of excavators accounted for only 21% of the annual export volume, and the export volume maintained a monthly growth trend. According to this estimation, the export volume of excavators in 2022 is expected to reach 120000 units, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70% compared with 68000 units in 2021, effectively smoothing the cyclical fluctuation of the Chinese market.
The proportion of small excavation structure continues to increase, and the follow-up of medium and large excavation is expected to usher in recovery
In terms of sales volume structure in China, the sales volume of small excavation (18.5t) / medium excavation (18.5-28.5t) / large excavation (> 28.5t) in March was 17864 / 6002 / 2690 units respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 59.7% / - 72.0% / - 62.5% respectively, accounting for 67.3% / 22.6% / 10.1% of the total sales volume, with a year-on-year ratio of + 6.5 / - 6.8 / - 0.3pct. The proportion of small excavation in the total sales volume continued to increase, mainly based on the gradual prominence of the attribute of small excavation machines to replace people, and the application scenarios expanded from traditional infrastructure to municipal, rural and other fields; The recovery of medium and large-scale excavation is relatively slow. The application scenario of medium and large-scale excavation is real estate and infrastructure projects. Large-scale excavation corresponds to large-scale infrastructure and mines. Later, with the commencement of infrastructure projects, medium and large-scale excavation is expected to usher in recovery.
Steady growth continued to increase, the margin of real estate policy was relaxed, and attention was paid to the repair opportunities of industry valuation
From January to February 2022, the country issued 971.9 billion yuan of new local government special bonds, a year-on-year increase of + 452.8%. The issuance of special bonds was ahead of schedule, effectively stimulating the investment in infrastructure projects, and the national infrastructure investment increased by 8.6% year-on-year. The steady growth policy in the second quarter is expected to continue to increase. On March 29 and April 6, the national Standing Committee proposed to "stick to the goal and put steady growth in a more prominent position" and "deploy and timely use monetary policy tools". Since the beginning of 2022, more than 60 cities have issued stable real estate policies. Under the guidelines of urban implementation, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Kunming and other places have relaxed real estate policies by reducing house purchase qualification requirements, reducing down payment ratio, relaxing loan requirements, reducing housing loan interest rate and so on. The construction machinery sector has a lot of early correction, and the two downstream margins of infrastructure and real estate have been improved. The valuation has a large space for repair.
Investment advice
Recommend [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] one of the most globally competitive high-end manufacturing leaders in China, and look forward to the opportunities in the process of globalization. [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] crane + concrete machinery is the leader of the post cycle, and the emerging sector contributes to a new growth pole. [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ] crane faucet, the mixed reform greatly releases the performance flexibility. [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ] domestic hydraulic parts are scarce, and the pump valve + non-standard discharge force passes through the cycle.
Risk tip: infrastructure and real estate are not as strong as expected; Industry cycle fluctuation; International trade disputes have intensified.
