\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 54 Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) )
Event:
1. The official website of the General Administration of tobacco of China announced on March 23 that Digital China Group Co.Ltd(000034) , Taiji Computer and guofurui won the “hardware equipment procurement project of the national tobacco production, operation and management integration platform project”.
2, Beijing E-Hualu Information Technology Co.Ltd(300212) official account issued April 8th news: the subsidiary company Guo Fu Rui successfully won the bid for “hardware equipment procurement project of the national tobacco production and operation management integrated platform project” and said it would “cooperate with Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) in the” cloud, edge and end integration “.
Comments:
1. The total amount of the project is about 500 million yuan, which provides edge calculation support for the tobacco “platform”. The project mainly provides edge calculation support for the platform. The total amount of the project is about 500 million yuan based on the maximum price of 13958600 yuan per set and the total purchase quantity of 3875 yuan.
2. The bid winning announcement is partial to the framework, and Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) as a product supplier is expected to have a considerable share
Referring to the announcement, we believe that the bid winning announcement is partial to the framework, and the specific share depends on the layout of suppliers in various regions of the country. Considering that Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) tobacco industry has been deeply cultivated for a long time, we expect a considerable share.
3. Significant increment in the past 22 years, highlighting the company’s important position in China’s cloud computing industry
Based on the total package of 500 million yuan, assuming a considerable share of the company, we believe that the short-term increment of cloud business in 2021 is significant. In the long run, the breakthrough of China tobacco, a huge customer, verifies the company’s product strength and highlights the company’s important position in China’s cloud computing industry.
4. Dispel the doubts of the industry. Super integration is the core composition of the cloud, and there is a wide range of needs in large customers
Previously, the market was worried about the transition from hyperfusion to cloud computing, which was limited to small and medium-sized customers. This bidding further highlighted that hyperfusion is the core component of cloud computing, and large customers have extensive needs, especially in edge scenarios.
5. Xaas transformation has led to short-term fluctuations in the statement. It is estimated that the revenue growth rate in 22 years will be 25% +, and the recommendation is reiterated
Facing the industry trend, the company took the initiative to seek xaas transformation, and the more radical measures led to short-term fluctuations in the statements. However, we believe that the dawn of transformation is now, the short-term pain, and the rebound of income growth in the past is a high probability event.
Considering the impact of transformation investment exceeding expectations and revenue subscription system on revenue, and referring to the company’s performance forecast, we lowered the profit forecast, predicting that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.714/83.92/11.078 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 269/7.79/1.202 billion yuan. Considering that the company’s short-term business fluctuations are expected to bring long-term strategic transformation to the good, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: 1) the growth rate of cloud computing business is lower than expected; 2) Intensified market competition; 3) The epidemic has repeatedly affected order delivery and revenue recognition
