\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 517 Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) )
How to treat the triple concerns of the market about Jue Wei's main business? (1) Volume: there is an upper limit on the opening space, and there is resistance to the sinking of the channel? We believe that the space of more than 30000 stores will lay the foundation for steady growth in the next 5-10 years, of which 40% of the new stores are expected to be concentrated in five provinces of Guangdong, Henan, Shandong, Hebei and Sichuan. Benchmarking Zhengxin chicken chops and honey Snow Ice City, it mainly focuses on the sinking of the third and fourth tier market in the short term, and the number of potential stores exceeds 3000, so there is no need to sink excessively. The "start a prairie fire" plan and "all rivers in the sea" will work from the executive level to provide ammunition for the sinking of channels and the increase of market share in the regional market. (2) Price: single store income is under pressure, and the transmission of price increase is limited? We believe that price increase transmission, structural upgrading and efficiency optimization are the three axes to improve the income of single stores. At the end of last year, the online price increase leveled the channel profit margin, and at the beginning of this year, the price increase was synchronized to hedge the upstream cost pressure. (3) Profit: the cost side is under pressure, and the transportation cost is impacted? We believe that the epidemic has an explicit impact on demand and an invisible disturbance on cost. The price of feather ducks deviates from the duck by-product price due to slaughter constraints. From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, the price of hairy ducks is expected to continue to fall, the epidemic situation is alleviated, the slaughtering capacity is released, the change trend of duck by-product price may converge to hairy ducks, and the improvement of cost pressure is expected to release profit elasticity quarterly.
Is Jue Wei's supply chain value undervalued? We believe that when the market pays too much attention to the main business, it ignores the value of the company's supply chain. In the post WanDian era, the core competitiveness of the chain business has shifted from "channel" to "supply chain". Through more than ten years of deep cultivation, the company has formed a six in one supply chain system of "procurement distribution warehousing production sales and intelligent system", completing the transformation from scale driven to efficiency driven. In the long run, benchmarking Shuhai and Sysco are expected to assist the "food ecosystem" to provide potential income options for the company's long-term development.
How to see the second growth curve "food ecosystem"? In 2014, the company established Wangju capital, invested in Hefu Laomian in 2015, invested Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) , and ushered in a profit contribution of more than 200 million in 2021; Yao Mazi invested by the company in 2019 is expected to be listed within the year. It is estimated that it is expected to contribute nearly 200 million investment income without considering market fluctuations. In terms of stewed food, the company is expected to recreate a unique flavor through the active layout of "food ecosystem" and referring to the development path of leisure stewed food.
Investment suggestion: due to the impact of the short-term epidemic and cost concerns, the current valuation is close to the bottom of history. It is suggested to focus on the halogen leader who will go into battle light after Q1 performance is implemented. Based on the 21q4 cost subsidy and 22q1 epidemic disturbance, we adjusted the revenue of 2021 / 22 / 23 to RMB 66.0/79.3/9.52 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.0% / 20.3% / 20.0% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.03/11.9/1.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.3% / 15.6% / 27.6% respectively. After excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses and investment income, the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 830 / 10.1 / 1.31 billion, corresponding to pe32.2 billion 0 / 26.2 / 20.2 times, close to the historical bottom area, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic risk, food safety risk, franchisee management and brand counterfeiting risk, raw material price fluctuation and poor investment income.
