\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 959 Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) )
The company disclosed 2021 annual report:
Throughout the year: income of RMB 3.6 billion (yoy-1%), RMB 280 million (yoy-34%) to the parent and RMB 260 million (yoy-35%) to be deducted Q4: income of RMB 1.2 billion (YoY + 7%), RMB 90 million (yoy-11%) to the parent and RMB 90 million (yoy-7%) to be deducted. Dividend: it is proposed to pay RMB 6 (including tax) for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 33%.
Revenue side: month on month recovery, better than the industry
Revenue growth continued to improve month on month. The q1-4 revenue growth rate of the company is 23% / – 26% / – 6% / 7%. Since Q2, the base pressure has decreased, and the company’s performance has warmed up quarter by quarter.
The industry boom continues to be low, and the company’s performance is slightly better than that of the industry. According to orvey, the annual retail sales of the small kitchen industry was – 14%, and the company outperformed the industry.
Profit side: net interest rate improved month on month
Full year: gross profit margin 33% (YoY + 0.4pct, compared with 19 years – 1.5pct), net profit margin 7.9% (yoy-3.8pct, compared with 19 years – 2pct).
Q4: gross profit margin 30% (YoY + 5.2pct), net profit margin 7.6% (yoy-1.5pct, mom + 0.8pct).
The annual gross profit margin was flat year-on-year under the pressure of raw materials. We expect that the main reason is ① the base of 20q4 is low (it has been impacted by raw materials in the current quarter), and 21q4 also rebounds significantly year-on-year; ② The increase in the proportion of self operation of the company increases the gross profit, but also increases the sales expenses. The annual sales expense rate was + 3.3pct year-on-year, compared with + 0.6pct in 19 years.
In a single quarter, the net interest rate maintained a positive trend month on month. Since Q2, the company’s net profit margin has continued to increase month on month. It can be seen that the company has gradually digested the pressure of raw materials through product structure adjustment and other means.
Recent tracking: cultivate internal skills and wait for recovery
In the past year when the industry has been under pressure, Xiaoxiong has carried out:
① adjustment and optimization of division structure. In December 2021, the company announced the removal of the original pot and electric appliance division and the addition of baby products and parts division; Remove the original operation management center and set up a new digital center and administrative service center. We believe that after optimization, it is more suitable for the strategic decision of category expansion of the company.
② the proposed issuance of convertible bonds will raise no more than 570 million to increase production capacity. It is proposed to add 13.11 million units (37.14 million units originally), and the construction period is 30 months.
③ push RMB 80-120 million repurchase for equity incentive / employee stock ownership. The company issued a repurchase announcement in March. The repurchase price does not exceed 55 yuan / share, about 0.93% – 1.39% of the total share capital.
④ set up industrial funds to look for opportunities for upstream and downstream integration. In March, the company announced that it planned to establish an industrial fund of 50 million yuan with HongNuo venture capital and HongNuo Zhaofeng, of which the company subscribed 40 million yuan.
The company cultivates internal skills at the bottom of the industry. After the subsequent external pressure such as raw materials is relieved, it is expected to gain greater flexibility in squatting and jumping. At present, the pressure on the revenue side of the company has also slowed down under the reduction of the base. According to magic mirror data, the sales of bear Jingdong from January to February were + 11% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: buy rating.
Although the short-term epidemic may cause Q2 damage, and the fire also affected the delivery in April; However, the company’s revenue and profit margin have shown a positive trend. Pay attention to the subsequent repair of the company’s raw material end and the recovery of the industry boom.
Considering that the price of raw materials remains high in the short term, the profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 360 million and 430 million yuan (the previous value is 440 million and 550 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 26% and + 20%, corresponding to pe19 and 16x. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
The prosperity of the industry was less than expected, the expansion of new categories was less than expected, and the growth of original categories slowed down
