\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 670 Jiangsu Gdk Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688670) )
Events
On April 8, the company released its annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 392 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 82 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47%, and a net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent of 66 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59%. The performance is lower than expected.
Comments
Affected by covid-19 vaccination, the performance is under pressure in the short term. In 2021, the company's revenue and net profit declined, mainly due to: 1. In 2021, the company's tetravalent influenza vaccination was greatly affected by covid-19 vaccine booster and covid-19 vaccination for children under 12 years old. 2. The expected return rate of tetravalent influenza in 2021 is changed from 0% to 10%. 3. Based on the principle of accounting prudence, inventory falling price reserves are accrued for some inventory commodities.
The cost rate has increased and is expected to be further optimized in the future. The management expense ratio of the company increased by 4.6% compared with the same period last year due to the expansion of business scale; The R & D rate increased by 4.2% due to the continuous increase of R & D investment and the expansion of pipeline under research; Affected by the epidemic, the sales promotion, warehousing and logistics, distribution fees related to contract performance were adjusted to business cost accounting and other factors, and the sales expense rate decreased by 5.9% compared with the same period last year.
The pipeline under research is advancing in an orderly manner, and a variety of products are in the registration stage. The company's tetravalent influenza vaccine (pre encapsulated dosage form) and freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cells) are in the production and registration stage, and are expected to contribute to the company in the future. The company has deeply developed tetravalent influenza vaccine series products. The phase I clinical of tetravalent influenza vaccine (children) has been completed, and it is expected to achieve wider population coverage in the future. In addition, 13 valent pneumonia combined vaccine, recombinant herpes zoster vaccine and freeze-dried live attenuated varicella vaccine are in preclinical research.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
Referring to the company's equity incentive target for 20222023, assuming that the impact of the epidemic on influenza vaccination is slowing down, we maintain the profit expectation for 2022, and the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 385 million yuan (+ 367%); The profit expectation for 2023 is lowered by 32%, and the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 477 million yuan (+ 24%) in 2023; Considering the launch of the company's new production capacity and the changes in the industry competition pattern, we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 584 million yuan (+ 22%) in 2024.
From 2022 to 2024, the company's corresponding EPS was 4.38, 5.42 and 6.64 yuan respectively, and the corresponding current PE was 10, 8 and 7 times respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic and covid-19 vaccination exceeded expectations; Changes in market competition pattern and intensification of competition; Marketing and sales fail to meet expectations; The digestion of new capacity is less than expected; The progress of R & D is less than expected.
