\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 460 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021. In the past 21 years, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.07%, of which 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 4.108 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 151.89% and a month-on-month increase of 37.43%. In 21 years, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 410%, of which Q4 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.756 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 296.96% and a month on month increase of 160.91%. In the 21st year, the non net profit deducted was 2.907 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 623%, of which Q4 achieved 1.479 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 990.76% and a month on month increase of 149.63%.
The simultaneous rise of lithium salt volume and price + profit and loss from changes in fair value helped the company increase its performance in 21 years. As the price of lithium salt such as lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide rose sharply in the past 21 years, the company achieved an average lithium salt price of 103700 yuan / ton LCE, with a year-on-year increase of 49.12%. The company’s Mahong phase III production capacity continued to release, the sales volume of lithium salt increased by 43.97% to 90700 tons year-on-year, and the change range of lithium concentrate was less than that of lithium salt. Therefore, the company’s gross profit increased by 276% year-on-year from 1181 → 4444 million yuan, making a positive contribution of 3.263 billion yuan to the growth of performance, which is the main reason for the high growth of its performance; In addition, the profit and loss from changes in fair value increased from 526 to 2229 million yuan, and the performance increased by 1.703 billion yuan; Due to the withdrawal of equity incentive expenses and other factors, the expenses during the reporting period increased and the profit decreased by about 543 million yuan.
During the 21 years, the expense rate of the company increased from 9.21% to 9.43%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.21pcts. Specifically, due to the expansion of sales scale, the sales expense increased by 112% year-on-year to 62 million yuan, and the sales expense rate increased by 0.03 PCTs year-on-year from 0.52% → 0.55%; Due to the provision of equity incentive expenses and other factors, the management expenses increased by 178% year-on-year to 470 million yuan, and the management expense rate increased by 1.15 PCTs year-on-year from 3.06% to 4.21%; The financial expenses increased by 6.33% year-on-year to 182 million yuan, and the financial expense rate decreased by 1.47 PCTs year-on-year from 3.10% to 1.63%; R & D investment increased, R & D expenses increased by 142% year-on-year to 339 million yuan, and the R & D expense rate increased by 0.50 PCTs year-on-year from 2.53% → 3.03%.
The layout of the resource side has been deepened, and the 25 year capacity guidelines have been raised. During the reporting period, the company completed the layout of major lithium resource projects such as 50% interest in goulamina spodumene project in Africa, 49% interest in Yiliping Salt Lake in Qinghai and tender offer acquisition of bacanora. By the end of the 21st century, the company had controlled lithium resources of about 60.17 million tons of LCE and equity resources of about 34.75 million tons of LCE. The company plans to form a lithium product supply capacity with an annual output of 300000 tons of LCE in 2025 (originally planned to be 200000 tons), and a lithium product supply capacity of no less than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons of LCE in the long term.
The industrial chain has been extended vertically, and the lithium battery business has developed rapidly. The company’s lithium battery business has laid out the technical path direction in various fields such as consumer batteries, TWS batteries, power / energy storage batteries and solid-state batteries. In 2021, the company completed the capital and share increase of Ganfeng lithium battery and introduced more than 20 strategic investors. In 21 years, the operating revenue of the battery sector increased by 59.49% year-on-year to 2.022 billion yuan, and the gross profit increased by 24.10% year-on-year from 195 to 242 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: in view of the sharp rise in the price of lithium salt in China, we raised the price of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2024 to 40 / 30 / 250000 yuan / ton, the price of lithium hydroxide to 38 / 30 / 250000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium concentrate to 4500 / 2500 / 2000 dollars / ton respectively. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be 14.998 billion yuan, 13.440 billion yuan and 17.192 billion yuan respectively (the predicted value before 22-23 years is 2.972 billion yuan and 3.131 billion yuan), According to the market value of 183.5 billion on April 7, the corresponding PE is 12.2, 13.7 and 10.7x respectively. Lithium carbonate is in short supply, which is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The company has high profitability and high growth, maintaining the company’s “buy” rating.
Price fluctuation risk of main products; The construction progress of the project is less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Supply side capacity release exceeded expectations; Deviation in demand calculation and lag in the use of public information in research and report; Changes in core assumptions cause the profit forecast to be lower than expected; The public information used in the research report has the risk of not being updated in time.
