\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 338 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) )
Event:
The company released its 2021 annual report, which showed that the company achieved a revenue of 1.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 314 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.92%; It is expected to realize the deduction of non net profit of 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.01%.
Comments:
Store expansion, steady growth in revenue, and high increase in net profit due to equity holdings
In 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 402 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 26.02%; The net profit was 89 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.76%. In the past 21 years, the company accelerated the pace of store expansion, enabled the profitability of a single store in many aspects from operation and management to product innovation, continuously stimulated the endogenous driving force of growth, and increased the income from external changes in fair value. Endogenous + spillover makes the annual net profit growth of the company exceed expectations.
Takeout business has become a new growth point, and the income of single store in East China has reached a new high
By expanding the takeout business, the company provided incremental for store operation, while strictly controlling the platform price system and data management, which helped to significantly increase the turnover of single stores. The average single store revenue of franchise stores across the country reached 324000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, of which the average single store revenue in East China recorded a new high since 2017.
The group meal business is gradually developing, and the Nanjing factory will be put into operation within the year
Over the past 21 years, with the growing scale of the group meal division and the significant growth of the group meal business, the capacity utilization rate of the Shanghai factory has been nearly saturated. Nanjing intelligent factory is expected to gradually release new capacity in the second half of 22 years and break the capacity bottleneck in East China. Wuhan “Haolike” and “zaoyidian” brands acquired by the company earlier will also achieve consolidated and thickened performance this year, and the regional business strategy has achieved remarkable results.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
In 2021, the expansion of Barbie stores slightly exceeded expectations, and the average single store revenue reversed the downward trend. In the future, the two carriages of stores + group meals will drive the steady growth of revenue. At the same time, taking into account the negative impact of the recent Shanghai epidemic blockade on stores in East China and the profit side fluctuation brought by non recurring income, we raised the revenue forecast for 20222023 to RMB 1.684/2.105 billion (the original value was RMB 1.640/1.947 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 22.47% / 24.96%, Raise the net profit from 2022 to 2023 to 254 / 310 million yuan (the original value is 224 / 272 million yuan), give the forecast of revenue and net profit in 2024 to 2.609 billion yuan and 386 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS is 1.02/1.25/1.56 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of current stock price is 29 / 24 / 19 times respectively, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The expansion of franchise stores is less than expected; The closure of the epidemic has led to a decline in store revenue; Food safety and other risks
